With mere minutes until Pittsburgh and Tennessee kick off, I’ve been poring over scouting reports, consulting with directors of player personnel and breaking down film before I file my preseason picks. Uh, not really. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. OK, maybe not that either. With all those chances to raise my level of enlightenment gone by the wayside, take these picks with a grain of salt. Here they are, Lempesis-style:
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (12-4) $ – Tom Brady’s back, and you know the Patriots will hit on one of the scrap-heap guys they picked up (Fred Taylor, Joey Galloway). Plus, they’re in a weak division.
2. Miami Dolphins (8-8) – They’ll regress, simply because they have a tough schedule, everyone’s figured out the Wildcat and Chad Pennington won’t be that good again.
3. New York Jets (7-9) – The solid O-line and defense keep the Jets respectable, but Thomas Jones won’t be as good and their offense will have a hard time putting up as many points.
4. Buffalo Bills (5-11) – T.O? Really? Is this worth it? Not with a subpar quarterback and a bad defense. Plenty of chances for drama, though.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – Ben Roethlisberger has been all the talk this offseason, but the defense is why they’ll repeat as division champs and make a deep playoff run.
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)* — The defense won’t have the same bite, but there’s enough playmakers there to get them back to the playoffs, if Joe Flacco continues to improve.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) – The Marvin Lewis Death Watch will continue all season – or possibly end with a mid-season firing – as the AFC’s most dysfunctional team plods along.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12) – I don’t care about their quarterback controversy. There’s still not enough here to make them matter, regardless of whether it’s Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson.
AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans (11-5) – The Chris Johnson-Lendale White duo will be strong again, and though the defense lost Albert Haynesworth, it’ll still be a solid unit.
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)* — Peyton Manning adjusts to a new coach and an aging offense. But, he’s still Peyton Manning, which is why they make the playoffs.
3. Houston Texans (8-8) – They’ll be exciting, sure, but they’re still not ready to take a step forward and make the playoffs, especially not in this division.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9) – If a mediocre team plays out its season, and there’s no one in the stadium to prevent a blackout, does it really count? Discuss.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (10-6) – This team could be a major force in the AFC if it could ever put together 16 good weeks. But the Chargers won’t. Still, they’ll be good enough to win a bad division.
2. Denver Broncos (8-8) – New coach, new quarterback, same issues on defense and dysfunction on offense. Are they headed in the right direction? Who can say?
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) – Matt Cassel will help the offense, and the Chiefs will air it out more than they have. But they still don’t have the pieces to make a run.
4. Oakland Raiders (4-12) – Throw deep, punt, give up points in large quantities, watch geriatric owner embarrass himself. Repeat.
NFC East
1. New York Giants (12-4)$ — The Giants’ pass rush is back at full strength, and their running game will be good enough to make a fragmented wide receiver corps serviceable.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)* — They’re everybody’s It Team in the NFC, but Donovan McNabb still has to lead them through what might be football’s toughest division. It’ll be enough for a wild card, but nothing more.
3. Dallas Cowboys (9-7) – With less weapons on offense, we’ll see what Tony Romo is made of. This is a pivotal year for the Cowboys, and the hunch here is they’ll disappoint.
4. Washington Redskins (7-9) – This team is usually the definition of mediocrity, and the addition of Albert Haynesworth isn’t going to change that. Not with an offense that still won’t score any points.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (11-5) – At the start of the offseason, the Packers had the best quarterback in the NFC North. They still do. And if the 3-4 is as nasty as it looked in the preseason, this could be a big year for our boys. Like, Judas-on-his-back-six-times big.
2. Chicago Bears (9-7)* – Not in love with this team, especially with those receivers and that secondary. But Lovie Smith will keep them competitive, and Matt Forte is a breakout player.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) – We’re setting the over/under on the ratio of gushing Favre stories to actual wins he produces at 6:1. Seriously, though, this is an overrated team that still can’t defend the pass, still has an idiot of a coach and thinks a broken-down diva will solve its problems. Sound like a Super Bowl contender to you?
4. Detroit Lions (2-14) – Yeah, they’ll be better. But it’s mathematically impossible to be worse. At least Matthew Stafford gives them something to look forward to.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons (10-6) – If QB Matt Ryan continues to progress, there’s no reason to think the Falcons can’t win this division, which is one of the toughest in football but should be a step down from last year.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-7) – They’ll put up plenty of points, but the question is whether new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams can shore up the unit enough to win the few games where Drew Brees isn’t popping scoreboard lightbulbs.
3. Carolina Panthers (9-7) – Their two-back attack will keep them in the division hunt, but it’s a little farfetched to expect this aging team to do what it did last year.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10) – With a new coach and sluggish offense, don’t expect the Bucs to keep up in this division for at least another year.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (10-6) – They lost offensive coordinator Todd Haley, but the defending conference champs have everyone back on offense and should benefit from a weak NFC West where Seattle is retooling.
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-8) – New coach Jim Mora has to deal with an offense that’s losing some bite and a defense that wasn’t as tough as it’s reputed to be last season.
3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10) – Mike Singletary can’t whip this team into shape enough times to make them competitive, not with Shaun Hill at quarterback. What happened to this team being the gold standard at the position?
4. St. Louis Rams (3-13) – They’ve got Steven Jackson and a new coach in Steve Spagnuolo, but this team is shockingly bereft of talent everywhere else.
AFC Playoffs
Wild card round:
Tennessee over Indianapolis
San Diego over Baltimore
Divisional round:
New England over San Diego
Pittsburgh over Tennessee
Championship game:
New England over Pittsburgh
NFC Playoffs
Wild card round:
Arizona over Chicago
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Divisional round:
New York over Philadelphia
Arizona over Green Bay
Championship game:
New York over Arizona
Super Bowl XLIV (February 7, 2010 at Dolphin Stadium in Miami)
New York Giants 20, New England Patriots 14
–Gene Bosling
Recent Comments