Are you ready for round two?
I know I am.
There have been plenty of titles for Sunday’s contest between the Green Bay Packers (4-2) and Minnesota Vikings (6-1), set for 3:15 p.m. Lambeau Time at, well, Lambeau Field.
I’ve pretty much stuck with “Round Two” because, to me, it most encapsulates everything this game is.
It’s another shot to take over first place; it’s another shot for the o-line to prove its mettle; but, more than anything, it’s another shot to bury that hillbilly traitor Judas.
How will the Packers go about winning the second round? Well, let’s find out as we at OBOD break down Packers vs. Vikings.
Current line (not that we encourage gambling): Green Bay by three with an over/under of 47 1/2 points.
Weather forecast: A high of 42 degrees with a low of 28 degrees and a 30 percent chance of precipitation. In other words, a typical early November afternoon at Lambeau.
Injury report
Green Bay
Korey Hall (knee) and Jordy Nelson (knee) are both once again out.
Jason Spitz (back) and Jermichael Finley (knee) both missed practice Friday. I don’t think Spitz’s back is so bad that he can’t play. Rather, it’s a case where the team feels comfortable with Scott Wells at the position and he will likely start. I would be surprised if Finley plays. Mike McCarthy is saying he could go, but I think he’s just trying to give Minnesota one more thing to worry about.
Chad Clifton (ankle) was back practicing Friday and saw some time with the No. 1 offense. Still, I really believe T.J. Lang will get the start at left tackle Sunday. Clifton just isn’t 100 percent; that’s not good enough against Jared Allen. I do think Clifton will be kept close by if Lang struggles.
Mark Tauscher (knee) has been given the medical green light and has been practicing all week. As ready as he might be, the guess here is that Allen Barbre will get the starting nod. Tauscher, like Clifton, will be at the ready if Barbre fails.
Minnesota
Minnesota’s top corner, Antoine Winfield, is out with a right foot injury.
Wide receiver Bernard Berrian (hamstring) is questionable, as is Percy Harvin (illness). Is it just me or is Harvin always ill? I didn’t know weed could make you sick.
Middle linebacker E.J. Henderson (knee) was limited earlier in the week but has now been upgraded to probable.
Key Matchups (different from the first Vikings game, I promise)
Offense
Green Bay wide receivers vs. Minnesota defensive backs
With Winfield out, that means everyone on the Vikings’ depth chart moves up a peg yet again. That could lead to numerous big plays for the Packers’ receivers. After all, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are very good – but they are not Donald Driver and Greg Jennings.
With the offensive line clearly at a disadvantage heading in, it’s up to the receivers to break free very quickly. That cuts down on time Rodgers has to hold on to the ball.
The receivers didn’t do a good job of this in the first game. Simply put, they – Jennings in particular – have to do much, much better.
Defense
Green Bay CB Al Harris vs. Minnesota QB Judas
I almost – wait never – do a specific player vs. player matchup for this section. In this case, though, an exception must be made.
Say what you will about him, but Judas was very smart to throw right at Harris in the first game. He knew he’d be in trouble if he threw too much at Charles Woodson. A backup strong safety (Derrick Martin), combined with Harris’ propensity for getting way too keyed up for big games, equaled a big day for Old Graybeard.
Harris must stay calm and be his normal aggressive self. With Atari Bigby covering him on the back end, there’s no reason for Harris to panic.
Special Teams
Green Bay kick/punt returners Tramon Williams and Brandon Jackson vs. Minnesota coverage teams
The Vikings’ coverage teams aren’t quite as bad as they were last season. But they still aren’t that good either.
That bodes well for Williams and Jackson. If they can bust a big return or two, that can really get the crowd into the game. Not that it won’t be anyways, but big returns always seem to turn the home volume up a notch or two.
The winner of the return battle also tends to win the game in close matchups like this.
The Green Bay Packers will win if…
- Rodgers is sacked no more than four times. Rodgers got beat up the first time these teams met. Some of it was his fault; some of it wasn’t. Regardless of who is to blame, Rodgers can not suffer a similar pounding Sunday. Four seems like an acceptable number. Anything higher means the offensive line is really, really struggling and if that’s the case, Green Bay will have a hard time winning this one.
- McCarthy really incorporates screens, draws and three-step drops. Whenever McCarthy ran these types of plays in the first game, guess what? They worked. That, combined with Baltimore’s highly successful use of these plays two weeks ago against the Vikes, should be enough to convince McCarthy to make them a big part of the plan Sunday. These plays are the perfect counter to an aggressive defense like Minnesota’s. They don’t allow the defensive linemen to pin their ears back and tee off. More importantly, they can quickly tire out those d-linemen.
- Dom Capers employs an exclusively bump-and-run approach for the corners. Green Bay played far too much zone defense in the first game. That allowed the Vikings’ receivers to find open spots all day as the Packers were generating no pressure with their front seven. A bump-and-run approach is more likely to cover Green Bay in the event it fails to get to Judas once again. Plus, it’s what Harris, Woodson and Williams do best. Let them do it then.
What I think will happen
Whatever cute title you want to use, let’s call this game what it really is: The Packers’ last shot at first place in the NFC North.
A win puts the Pack a half-game out (with a trip to winless Tampa Bay the next week). A loss and Green Bay is essentially three games behind Minnesota as the Vikings would then have the tiebreaker. Crazier things have happened, yes, but a loss and we’re likely just hoping to make the playoffs as a wild card.
And you want to know something? I really believe the Packers will show that desperation Sunday – but in a good way. You’re going to see the hardest, toughest, best 60 minutes of football this team has played all year, if for no other reason than it has to. This game isn’t Minnesota’s season; it’s Green Bay’s, though.
Still, the Vikings are just too good for this thing to be a blowout. Judas will hit a couple of throws and Adrian Peterson will break a couple of runs. That said, I think the defense will hold more times than not. There will also be a turnover or two in there somewhere. Nick Collins – now is the time to step up and prove you’re a big money player.
Offensively, the line will hold up more times than not. That’ll allow Rodgers to have his way with the Vikings’ secondary. And I really believe McCarthy will call a smarter, more efficient game this time around. If he doesn’t, you have to wonder what’s going on in that block head of his.
Throw in a rabid, angry, anti-Judas crowd (don’t let me down, Packers fans) and that’ll be enough.
Hope is a good thing. But, sometimes, so is desperation.
See you Sunday night after we win.
Prediction: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 24
-Chris Lempesis
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