What’s that? You thought the “Gettin’ you ready for…” posts would stop at the conclusion of the regular season?
Oh, how wrong you are.
In fact, not only are we not done, we’re kicking it up a notch. Since there are only four games this week (and next), we’re going to be able to go a little more in-depth with our analysis of each game.
So…you know…lucky you, I guess.
Anyways, let’s tee this thing up (in the order of the way the games will appear on the schedule) as we at OBOD get you ready for wild card weekend.
(Also, all times listed are Lambeau Time)
New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., NBC – And the wild card round is off and running with, arguably, the least attractive matchup of the weekend! Quite honestly, I’m not sure what to make of either of these teams. Everyone talks about the Jets’ top-ranked run defense, yes, but that same defense allowed over 100 yards on the ground eight times this season (Green Bay, the league’s second-ranked run defense, only allowed over 100 yards four times, for example).
The Bengals were the feel-good story for the first three quarters of the season, before losing three of their last four. They’re not playing nearly as well as before and you really have to wonder how much Chris Henry’s death has taken out of this team. Still, as my good friend Matt pointed out to me on the phone recently, the matchup between Mark “12 touchdowns, 20 interceptions” Sanchez and Carson Palmer is a no-brainer. I think this game has u-g-l-y written all over it, with the Bengals winning by a decent margin. Cincinnati 17, New York 9
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-5), Saturday, 7 p.m., NBC – I’ll cut to the chase. I think Dallas wins and here’s why: Remember how the 2002 season ended for the Green Bay Packers? If you don’t, here’s a refresher: The New York Giants upset the Eagles in a Saturday afternoon game in week 17, clearing the way for Green Bay to claim home-field advantage throughout – provided the Packers could beat the Jets in New York the next day. Well, the Packers went out and got smoked by the Jets, showing little effort in the process. Home-field (really, a bye of any kind) was gone and the Pack had to face Mike Vick and the Atlanta Falcons in Lambeau in round one. And we damn sure all remember that debacle.
Philly had a similar chance last week. Beat Dallas and the Eagles would have a first-round bye. Instead, the Eagles played with little emotion, got shutout and now have to make a return trip to the Taj MaJerry. My point being: When you have a shot at a bye and get your ass kicked – thus, losing out on the bye - it usually carries over. That, combined with the way Dallas’ front seven is playing, will equal Tony Romo’s first playoff win. Dallas 27, Philadelphia 17
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at New England Patriots (10-6), Sunday, Noon, CBS – I was all set to make this my big upset pick of round one. Wes Welker’s season-ending knee injury removed the key chain-mover from the Pats’ offense and that would allow Baltimore to focus entirely on Randy Moss. Plus, I had some concerns about New England’s defense.
Then, though, I remembered three key factors:
- Even without Welker, Baltimore can’t cover anybody as it is extremely thin at corner.
- The Pats are 8-0 at home this season. The Ravens are just 3-5 on the road.
- Tom Brady plays quarterback for New England. Joe Flacco plays quarterback for Baltimore. Even if Brady is banged up, I mean, come on.
I still have my doubts about the Pats’ defense. But as long as they can contain Ray Rice somewhat, I think they should earn a comfortable victory. New England 21, Baltimore 12
Green Bay Packers (11-5) at Arizona Cardinals (10-6), Sunday, 3:40 p.m., Fox – The game we’ve all been waiting for! More on this one in the coming days, of course, but for now I’ll say this: The Packers have the edge in almost every key area.
For example:
- Green Bay has the best turnover ratio in the league (plus-24). Arizona has the 25th best (minus-7). Turnover ratio is perhaps the single biggest determining factor in who wins playoff games.
- Green Bay will have damn near everyone healthy. Arizona might be without one of its biggest playmakers, Anquan Boldin, and has a number of other players who will be less than 100 percent.
- Arizona has some players, yes – but Green Bay has more. Say Adrian Wilson cancels out Jermichael Finley and say Dominique Rodgers-Cromarite (one of those injured players) cancels out Greg Jennings. Okay, fine. Who takes away the rest of Green Bay’s playmakers? The Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald, yes. But Green Bay has Charles Woodson. If Boldin is hurt and Fitz is canceled out, who else do the Cards have? Matchups, baby, matchups. They favor the Pack across the board.
Plus, the whole “first playoff game” thing isn’t likely to rattle Aaron Rodgers. Frankly, if the events of summer 2008 didn’t, I’m not sure much will. Kurt Warner is still an elite quarterback and he’ll hit some throws to keep Arizona in the game. But it’s not a game the Cards can win. Green Bay 30, Arizona 21
Overall record for the regular season: 148-76 (66 percent)
-Chris Lempesis
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