Gettin' you ready for divisional weekend

Well, my playoff predictions are off to a smashing start. After picking winners at a solid 66 percent clip during the regular season, I nailed exactly one pick last weekend. And, of course, it wasn’t our beloved Green Bay Packers.

No, I guessed correctly on the hated Dallas Cowboys. Of course it had to be them. Of course it did!

F…M…L.

Before we get to this week’s picks, a brief history lesson is in order:

This is a weekend where home teams tend to be in trouble. Over the last four postseasons, the home team has a mark of just 7-9 in the divisional round. Five of those losses have been suffered by No. 1 overall seeds. The AFC has a slight edge – can you call it that? – in home-team losers with five.

In other words, recent history tells us that we will not get Minnesota at New Orleans and San Diego at Indianapolis as the respective conference title games next weekend.

So, who will we get? Let’s find out as we at OBOD get you ready for divisional weekend.

(Once again, these games appear in the order they will on your television schedule and all times listed are Lambeau Time)

Arizona Cardinals (11-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., FOX – If you’re in one of those postseason fantasy leagues where you can change your roster week-to-week, make sure to load this week’s lineup with players from these teams as a lot of points will be put up in this one. Vegas has the over under at 57 currently. If you’re a betting type, take the over.

The Saints stumbled down the stretch, to be sure. But I think they win, ultimately, because Arizona’s defense just isn’t very good. That unit surrendered 45 points to the Pack last week. And that’s with Aaron Rodgers turning the ball over twice, both turnovers leading to points for the Cardinals. Green Bay turned the ball over three times in all and Arizona, to its credit, got 20 points off of them.

But, for as much as we all love A-Rodg, Drew Brees he is not. Brees will not make such mistakes, especially at home with a silent crowd allowing him to go to work (it was loud as hell for Rodgers last week). Defensively, the Saints aren’t really any better than the Packers, so Kurt Warner will be able to make some plays. But, again, the noise comes in to play as New Orleans’ defense really seems to thrive off the loud Superdome crowd. Warner will make a mistake or two as I just don’t seem him playing flawless football two weeks in a row. The home teams are safe – so far. New Orleans 48, Arizona 35

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-2), Saturday, 7:15 p.m., CBS – As we learned above, this weekend is particularly bad if you are a No. 1 seed. It’s also bad if you are from the AFC. And, hey, who am I to argue with history?

That’s right, fans – I’m taking the Ravens. Here’s why:

1. The Colts haven’t played a meaningful game since Dec. 17, a road win over Jacksonville. That’s 30 days, folks – a lifetime in the NFL. They were given a tough challenge, yes, only winning 35-31. But that had more to do with the fact that the game was played on a Thursday night (short week, not much time to prepare) than it did with Jacksonville’s talent. Since then, the Colts have basically punted two games before sitting out a third week with the bye. When has this formula EVER worked?
2. The last time Indianapolis beat a playoff team? Nov. 22, against…the Baltimore Ravens! The Colts won by another small margin, 17-15. But do you know what else happened in that game? Baltimore held a 15-14 lead until midway through the fourth. Statistically, Joe Flacco threw for 256 yards; Ray Rice and Willis McGahee ran for 96 yards combined; and Dallas Clark was held to one catch for three yards, although it was a touchdown catch. In other words, the Ravens know they can hang with the Colts.
3. Look at the statistical standings in a few key areas. Indianapolis has the 24th-ranked run defense, allowing 126.5 yards per game. What, you have to think, will Baltimore (owner of the fifth-best rushing attack at 137.5 yards per) look to do early and often? That’s right – run the ball! And when Peyton Manning looks to throw, he’ll do so against the league’s fifth-best pass defense.
4. Finally, take a look at Manning’s playoff numbers; they’re not very good, outside of his 280.5 yards per game average. A record of 7-8, 22 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a pedestrian rating of 84.6

When you add all these things up, it sure seems like the Colts are in trouble. That’s because they are. Baltimore 21, Indianapolis 20

Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at Minnesota Vikings (12-4), Sunday, Noon, FOX – Well, I’ve already predicted the demise of one home team this weekend. Shall I make it two with Judas and Co.?

You know what? Yeah!

Look at the matchups; they favor Dallas across the board. The Cowboys’ aggressive front seven is playing as well as any in the league right now. How will Minnesota’s two, big, slow tackles (Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt) contain that group? Pressure, pressure, pressure.

Defensively, tight ends have torched the Vikings all season (see: Davis, Vernon and Finley, Jermichael). Well, Dallas has one of the best in the league in Jason Witten. Antoine Winfield’s gimpy foot means Cedric Griffin draws the Miles Austin assigment. Uh-oh. And that big, nasty Cowboys’ offensive line won’t be scared off by Jared Allen and Kevin and Pat Williams.

More than anything, though, here’s why Minnesota loses: Judas is playing with house money now. See, this was NEVER about a Super Bowl title to him. It was always about sticking to Ted, Mike, Mark and Aaron. He’d already beaten them twice in the regular season, won the division title and clinched a first-round bye. But when the Packers lost last week, that meant his new team would go farther in the playoffs, too. In other words, in his mind he’s now accomplished everything he set out to do. In his mind, he’s won, through and through.

Thus, the house money. And when he plays with house money, the house usually ends up winning it back. ALL of it. Dallas 28, Minnesota 20

New York Jets (10-7) at San Diego Chargers (13-3), Sunday, 3:40 p.m., CBS – Hang on a second, I’ve got to shift into Rex Ryan mode.

(Chris immediately gains 800 pounds, an undeserved sense of accomplishment and a complete lack of class) 

I wasn’t going to comment on it, but I would like to congratulate the people that are picking the San Diego Chargers. These guys obviously really know the game. And you’ve got to look at all the things San Diego can do, not just a number about this, or this stat or that stat.

A number I think is interesting would be 11. And no, that’s not the amount, in tons, of bullshit coming out of my mouth at any given second. That is the number of wins San Diego has in a row. And the biggest reason for that is they’re finally showing a team-wide killer instinct.

There’s plenty of things to look at. San Diego has an elite quarterback (Philip Rivers) and a deep, talented group of pass catchers good enough to spread the Jets’ pass defense thin. The Chargers’ defense isn’t great, but they have a knack for making stops at crucial times. That might be consideration for picking them to win this week.

And it really was for the people that picked San Diego to win. I tip my hat to them because they really know the game. That’s all I’m going to say about it.

Again, Rex, from all of us at OBOD: Up yours. San Diego 27, New York 14

-Chris Lempesis