Running back group the focus of much scrutiny

Last week, we received an e-mail from one of our readers, Tim Wellerritter. After saying some kind words about our site – thanks for that, Tim – he brought up the topic of Green Bay’s situation at running back. His thoughts:

“As far as the Packers, I would love for them to get a change of pace back.  I’m not sure how he would fit in, maybe replace Green, but it seems like years since the Packers have had a real burner back there to change things up.  I may be in the minority but I think the Packers taking a RB in the first round wouldn’t be the end of the world.  If Grant goes down, I’m not sure Jackson could handle the load.  I would hate to change his role from 3rd down back to full time back with Green behind him.  I wouldn’t even mind if the Packers signed Chester Taylor (I know he’s too expensive).”

Tim is not alone in wondering about the group there as the Packers’ running backs have been the focus of much scrutiny from fans and media members alike this offseason. Some don’t think Ryan Grant is a true No. 1 back. Some love Grant, but don’t much care for Brandon Jackson, at least in the sense that they doubt his abilities to be a No. 1 if Grant went down. Some are okay with both those guys, but have no interest in bringing Ahman Green back as they feel he’s too old (and too much of an injury concern) to be much of anything, especially if he was pressed into meaningful duty.

Me? I’m not really in any of these groups. I like the Packers’ situation at running back, but can understand why some might worry.

First, let’s talk about Grant. I don’t agree with those who say he’s not a No.1 runner. Okay, so maybe I did early in the 2009 season. I mean, I am the guy who pushed for the team to trade for St. Louis’ Steven Jackson at the deadline, after all. Somewhere shortly after that, though, I began to change my mind. As soon as this team brought Green back, Grant stepped his game up big-time. He ran with passion and toughness, seemingly getting a step faster along the way. The return of Mark Tauscher helped a lot, too. In the end, Grant finished as the league’s seventh-best rusher with 1,253 yards and 11 scores.

Some fans say that Grant will never be like Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. To those fans, I’d simply say: Are you sure? Remember, Peterson finished ‘09 with just 130 more rushing yards on 32 more carries and each player averaged 4.4 yards a rush. Sure, Grant hit paydirt seven less times (18-11). You know what else Grant did? He lost five less fumbles (6-1). And he’s still just 27 years old, meaning he can be the guy for at least a few more seasons.

Ultimately, with any top back, you have to ask the question: Can his team win a Super Bowl with him as the main guy? I’m not sure how anyone could answer that with a “no” with regards to Grant.

Now, let’s move on to Jackson. I’m a bit ambivalent about Jackson, to be honest. On the one hand, I love him in the current role he plays. He’s a great blitz buster, a nifty screeen pass guy and can pick up good yards on the ground from time-to-time. As long as he stays in that role, he should continue to develop and provide solid value to the offense. In the event Grant got hurt and had to miss significant time, though, I’m not sure how Jackson would fare as a 20-25 carry-a-game guy. He doesn’t seem to have much in the way of explosion and isn’t very big or punishing. Teams have to respect Grant; they wouldn’t have to respect Jackson, meaning it could be harder for the passing game to do its thing. Still, Jackson is likely on this team for the foreseeable future and I’m fine with that.

Finally, let’s examine Green. I’m on record as saying I think he should come back and I’m sticking to that. He likely only has one year left in the tank, but for that one year you’ll be getting a tough, determined runner who can pick up short yards and hasn’t lost his fastball in the pass catching department. Basically, he does the same things as Jackson, only he also brings a veteran’s savvy to what is now the youngest team in the league. That means a lot. In the previously mentioned situation where Grant gets hurt, Green then becomes the No. 2 back. What would his job be in that situation? Pretty much just more of what he does now. I don’t think he’s that much of a liability in that scenario.

Still, if there’s one guy who isn’t back next year, it’s Green. Who would then replace him?

In his e-mail, Tim brought up two ideas: the high drafting of a back (perhaps one with some real speed) or pursuing a player like Minnesota’s Chester Taylor in free agency (which starts Friday, by the way).

In terms of drafting a back high, it seems unlikely – but with Ted Thompson, anything’s possible. You have to think all the backs, outside of Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, will be available at No. 23. Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews has had himself a very good combine and has the size (6-feet, 218 pounds) to be a player. Cal’s Jahvid Best is pure speed (ran a 4.35 40) and could bust games open but has an injury history already. Other players, like Georgia Tech’s Jonathan Dwyer, Ole Miss’ Dexter McCluster, Tennessee’s Montario Hardesty, Stanford’s Toby Gerhart and USC’s Joe McKnight (was he in New Kids on the Block?) could be there for the taking in rounds two and three.

With major needs at o-line and corner (and minor needs at d-line, safety and outside linebacker), though, I doubt Thompson takes any of those guys. He dropped his “best player available” approach last season and it worked. My guess is that he does so again this year. If he takes a back, it’s probably not unti the fourth round at least (maybe, say, Auburn’s Ben Tate, who ran a 4.45 40 at the combine despite weighing in at 220 pounds).

As for the free agent approach, again, it seems unlikely. Tim’s right to say that Taylor would be costly (likely in the $4 or $5 million a year range) and I also agree with him that Green Bay should at least attempt to get him if he hits free agency. He’s a better version of Jackson, at least at the moment, and snagging him from the Vikes would be a big blow to the team Green Bay’s chasing in the division. That said, I can’t see Minnesota letting him go, especially if it thinks the Packers would go hard after him.

Outside of Taylor, there isn’t much available as many of the top backs who would’ve been unrestricted are now restricted with 2010 being an uncapped year. Houston’s Chris Brown, Cincy’s Larry Johnson and Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker are the best of the bunch. If that’s all that’s there, I think I’d rather just bring Green back.

In the end, I doubt Thompson does much with this group. Drafting a player high means you can’t address an area of need. Spending any legitimate amount of money on a free agent back just doesn’t seem like his style, either. He’s going to go with what he has.

And again, while I can understand some concerns people might have, no one should be down on this group. Like I’ve said before, teams have won Super Bowls with less at the position.

-Chris Lempesis