Imagine you had your eye on this cute girl all spring as a junior in high school and thought you might have a chance to ask her to homecoming that upcoming fall as a senior. However, she blossomed even more over the summer and when senior year started she was the desire of every guy and you then had no chance of asking her out.
That’s how I feel about Earl Thomas, safety out of Texas.
I really want Thomas and wanted him since middle of last season. With Taylor Mays and Eric Berry the glimmer in everyone’s eyes, I thought the Packers would have a good shot of landing Thomas. My crush only grew as Texas marched to the national championship game. The only problem is that everyone else noticed that Thomas as the second-best safety in the draft behind Berry. My dream of Thomas has all but died unless they move up (which I don’t see happening).
However, there is still the real attractive blonde girl, who was a star athlete and the dream of the junior class, but got lost in the shuffle when new girl was getting noticed. She is still at the top, just not thought of as much anymore. That girl is Mays and that’s where we begin our safety coverage (and end my lame dating analogies).
- Taylor Mays, USC
The numbers: 6-feet, 3-inches, 230 pounds…22 years old, senior…4.43 40-time, best at combine among DB’s…24 bench press reps at combine…41-inch vertical jump at combine…34-inch arm length…four-year starter at USC…276 career tackles…consensus 1st-team All-American in 2008, 2nd-team All-American in 2009…1st-team All-Pac-10 in ‘08 and ‘09…His father, Stafford Mays, was a defensive lineman who played in the NFL with the Cardinals and Vikings.
What he does that could work for the Packers: Just look at the numbers, Mays is a freak. The combination of size, speed and strength makes any GM drool. There might not be a better closing player in the draft at any position and Mays makes the ball carrier pay. Very aggressive and effective against the run and has the speed and agility to cover from sideline to sideline. Smart and flexible athlete that can translate into multiple positions and schemes.
What he doesn’t do that could hurt the Packers: As gifted as an athlete Mays is he is very inconsistent in pass coverage. Can make big hits, but doesn’t always makes plays in pass coverage (only 5 INT’s at USC). Takes too many chances and his over-aggressiveness gets him in trouble. Questionable instincts, which leads to bad technique and angles. Has a great motor, but only when motivated as passion for the game, along with maturity are concerns.
Final Thoughts: A year ago Mays would have been a top-15 pick. He came back for his senior year, which actually hurt his stock. The athleticism of Mays is off the charts, but can the mental part catch up to the physical part? He also may have started to level-off as a player. That being said, Mays is pro-ready and put in the hands of smart and creative coordinator (i.e. Capers) he can be a stud at the next level. His ball skills are questionable at best, but that is not needed with Collins re-signed. Mays is a definite upgrade of Atari Bigby and Capers would use him all over the field. If there is a run on OT and maybe CB, Mays would be a nice pick up at #23.
- Nate Allen, South Florida
The numbers: 6-feet, 207 pounds…22 years old, senior…didn’t run 40 at pro day or combine due to quad injury, but averages about 4.5…three-year starter, captain as a senior…2nd-team All-Big East…85 tackles and 4 INT’s as a senior…9 career INT’s.
What he does that could work for the Packers: Great athlete with good speed and size. Good ball skills and playmaking ability. Excellent range and excels in zone coverage and above average in man. Plays smart and posses good instincts. Productive, hard-working player who has leadership qualities.
What he doesn’t do that could hurt the Packers: Needs work against the run. Can have mismatches against taller, bigger receivers in man coverage. Isn’t a big, physical hitter and could improve tackling, primarily in open field.
Final Thoughts: Allen is quite different from Mays. He excels in pass coverage and uses his instincts and football smarts well. Quite frankly, there isn’t a whole lot not to like about Allen. A solid, three-year starter who isn’t a big risk taker and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Size could be a hindrance in man coverage, but Capers does run quite a bit zone. He isn’t a big hitter, but not a liability. Just comes off as a solid future starter with some upside and not a lot of obvious flaws. Definitely worth a second round pick and could make an impact as a rookie.
- Chad Jones, LSU
The numbers: 6-feet, 2-inches, 221 pounds…21 years old, forfeiting senior season…4.54 4-time and 11 bench press reps at pro day…74 tackles and 3 INT’s in 2009…2nd-team All-SEC in ‘09…member of the LSU baseball team as a pitcher and outfielder.
What he does that could work for the Packers: Jones posses great size for a safety. Has versatility to play both safety positions. Loves playing in the box and effective against the run. Has good ball skills and playmaking ability as seen in his breakout year of ‘09. Also can be a weapon on special teams with experience both kick and punt returning. Great athlete as a a two-sport star.
What he doesn’t do that could hurt the Packers: As good of a athlete Jones is, he still pretty raw at the safety position. 2009 was his first full year of a starter. His instincts and awareness are questioned and needs to get more comfortable of playing outside of the box. Can struggle in pass coverages, especially against tight ends and running backs. Speed is good, but not great as a safety and needs to get a lot stronger after only 11 reps at his pro day. Desire uncertain with baseball in his back pocket.
Final Thoughts: Jones is a gifted athlete without a doubt. Only the second player in college history to own BCS national title and a national baseball championship. However, there are some big holes in Jones’ game. His pass coverage is suspect and is he strong enough to play in the box at the next level, even with his size? He probably could have benefited with a return for his senior year. The potential is there without a doubt and his desire issues may clear up once his focus is primarily on football and not baseball. He would give the Packers another toy to work in the return game, but is a project at safety. Will go second round just because of his attributes and numbers, but wouldn’t reach for him as he probably wouldn’t be a contributor right away like Mays or Allen.
While safety doesn’t have a lot of first round prospects, it is a very deep draft this year from 2nd round on. We’ll tackle some more later prospects that could be targeted tomorrow, so check back in, hopefully without any more dating analogies.
Oh and some little thing called the NFL schedule is going to be released in the very near future. We’ll have coverage once it breaks. Check for updates on Twitter as well.
-Adam Somers
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