Ricky Keeler of Foxboro Blog joins us this week to help us breakdown the hottest team in [...]]]> So the two weeks we have failed to do the weekly opposition, the Packers lost to Atlanta and then last week to Detroit. That won’t happen again. We are taking no more chances, so in Flynn we trust, right!?

Ricky Keeler of Foxboro Blog joins us this week to help us breakdown the hottest team in the NFL. At the start of the season I predicted a Patriots/Packers Superbowl, well at least I will get half of that right it looks like. Until then we have Week 15.

1) The Patriots are playing as well as they have been in years, do you think this is related to the trade of Randy Moss?

Yes, in a small factor. Clearly, Moss has overstayed his welcome in Foxboro and I thought he did in Week 2 against the Jets when giving up on routes in the 2nd half. Now, this Patriots’ team has no distractions and is back into the TEAM dynamic. It is a joy to see these role players step up as well as the young players becoming a key role in the offense and when you have Tom Brady at QB, you will always have an efficient offense. Great move by Belichick to ship him when he did and getting a 3rd round pick for the multitude of picks to come for New England in the 2011 NFL Draft.

2) What have been the keys to the Patriots’ success in cold and snow weather games?

The key has to be Tom Brady. Even I was shocked to see Brady put up 36 points in a blizzard against a pretty good defense in the Chicago Bears. It is the way he throws the football. I say that because in the gusts of wind, Brady throws it with a fast velocity and his pinpoint accuracy is a huge factor to that success as well. Plus, Belichick has his guys always practice in the frigid environments, to get a feel of the game. Not good for Green Bay when there could be snow in Foxborough Sunday night.

3) Outside of Jerrod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, this has been a pretty successful no-name type of defense this year for the Patriots. Who are some players that will stick out for Packer fans?

I’ll give you a name that everyone has not paid attention to and should be a leading candidate for defensive rookie of the year with Ndamakong Suh. That player is cornerback Devin McCourty. McCourty is one of the top players in the league with six interceptions, which is also two away from a Patriots’ rookie record. He has made big play after big play and has improved his cover corner skills from when I saw him at Rutgers last year. I look for him to be on Greg Jennings Sunday night and with McCourty making big plays on some receivers like Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin and Braylon Edwards among others, look for the rookie to have one game changing interception in this game.

4) Brady has thrown 268 consecutive passes without an interception, put he faces the league’s third-rated pass defense that has 18 interceptions so far this year. Do you see the streak ending this week and will the Packers secondary give Brady any problems?

Yes, I think the Packers secondary will give Brady problems but until I see Brady make a mistake, I won’t say he throws an INT, at least until he passes Bernie Kosar for the record after 16 pass attempts. I look for Charles Woodson or Traman Williams to play a huge factor in this game because if the Packers can bring a consistent pass rush for 60 minutes, they have a great chance to win as I have said about the Jets and Bears the last two weeks. He has almost perfected the short-intermediate pass game and always hits the open guy. Plus, I don’t think the Packers have a player who can handle the good tight end play of Rob Gronkowski as well as Aaron Hernandez.

5) Everyone always says that Belicheck is best at taking away the team’s greatest strength, but if Rodgers does not play where does that focus shift to?

If Aaron Rodgers does not play, and if I was Mike McCarthy, I would not play him, I still think New England is going to focus on playing a dominant defensive game for 60 minutes. Matt Flynn did look horrible against the Lions, but when you have receivers like Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones, the yards will pile up. He will look to pressure Flynn with numerous schemes, but sacks should be at a premium for the Pats for the first time in a while. If I’m Green Bay, I sit Rodgers because of the concussions and because this game does not count towards NFC record or division record, so the loss is not a playoff killer for the moment. But, look for Belichick’s D to come out aggressive in the early going.

_____

Thanks again to Ricky from Foxboro Blog. We answered some questions for their site, so be to check them out before Sunday’s game.

-Adam Somers

In case you weren’t sure, the record had previously been held by a man we know (all too) well: Brett [...]]]> In guiding his team to a 45-3 blowout win over the New York Jets on Dec. 6, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady set an NFL record for most consecutive regular season home wins at 26.

In case you weren’t sure, the record had previously been held by a man we know (all too) well: Brett Favre.

Sunday night’s contest with the Green Bay Packers provides Brady his first chance to extend that streak. But, as we currently stand, how does Brady’s streak compare to Favre’s, exactly?

The question facinated me. And, since I have no girlfriend, I figured I had the time to find out.

What was discovered is more than interesting. In short, while Brady’s streak may be longer, Favre’s streak was more impressive in a lot of areas.

Before we begin, an interesting tidbit: Each player’s streak began when their respective teams were coming off of 17-14 home losses (Brady to the Jets in Nov. 2006 and Favre to the Rams in Sept. 1995). After that, each was off and running.

In terms of major comparisons, the first you must look at is overall level of competition. During his streak, Brady has faced teams with a combined record of 85-96 (.470) at the time each headed into Foxboro. While that’s not atrocious, it doesn’t compare to the combined record of the teams Favre faced: 98-78 (.557).

As far as quality competition goes, again, give the edge to Favre. He faced 15 opponents who were either at or above .500 (not counting three season openers) at the time of the game, compared to 12 for Brady (who has also had three season openers during his streak). Favre’s average margin of victory against those quality opponents was 15.3 points per win. Brady’s is 17.9 per, although “The Hoodie” likes to run up the score just a bit more than Mike Holmgren did.

Given that Brady’s level of competition wasn’t as high, it’s not surprising that he’s racked up more big wins (10 points or more). But not many more – just one, in fact. Brady has 17, while Favre had 16. Brady’s largest margin of victory? That would be 59 points in New England’s 59-0 destruction of Tennessee last season. Favre’s isn’t as high – a 35-point win over Denver (41-6) late in the 1996 season – but, still, that’s not bad, either.

But while Brady has more big wins, he’s also had more close calls. A lot more. Five of Brady’s victories have come by four points or less. You know how many Favre had? One – the now-legendary 23-20 overtime thriller with San Francisco during the ‘96 season.

None of these facts are meant to downgrade the significance of Brady’s streak, keep in mind. In today’s NFL – i.e., “Parity Gone Wild” – for any quarterback to do what he’s doing is nothing short of astounding, especially when you consider the youth movement the Pats have gone through at the skill positions since the end of ‘08. And while Favre’s streak was impressive, it doesn’t change my current thoughts on the man.

Rather, this was just meant to be a fun exercise during an otherwise tough week for Packers fans. Hope you didn’t mind my geekiness too much.

-Chris Lempesis

A look at the remaining schedules for the teams Green Bay is chasing in the NFC playoff race doesn’t brighten the picture at all.

But first, a look at the playoff picture at the moment.

As of now, there [...]]]> Sunday’s loss to the Detroit Lions felt like a crippling shot to the playoff hopes of the Green Bay Packers.

A look at the remaining schedules for the teams Green Bay is chasing in the NFC playoff race doesn’t brighten the picture at all.

But first, a look at the playoff picture at the moment.

As of now, there are seven teams playing for five spots (with the winner of the putrid NFC West getting the sixth, below .500 record be damned). The Packers are currently in seventh - i.e., dead last. If the playoffs started today – which, surprise, they don’t! – Atlanta (11-2) and Chicago (9-4) would have first-round byes, the Falcons having homefield throughout.

Your first round matchups would be No. 6 New York (8-4) at No. 3 Philadelphia (9-4) and No. 5 New Orleans (10-3) at No. 4 St. Louis (6-7). Tampa Bay (8-5) is the first-team out, with Green Bay (8-5) trailing because Tampa Bay has lost one less conference game. Win or lose, the Giants will remain the sixth seed after tonight’s contest with the Vikings (they’ll have tiebreakers over both the Bucs and the Packers).

In other words, the Packers have a long way to go and not much time to get there.

For the purposes of this post, I’m going to assume Atlanta earns homefield, St. Louis takes the fourth spot and the Saints grab the No. 5 position. Now we’re left with five teams playing for three spots. Let’s go to the schedules for each of those teams, shall we?

• Philadelphia: at Giants, Vikings at home and Cowboys at home
• New York (after tonight): Eagles at home, at Green Bay and at Washington
• Chicago: at Vikings, Jets at home and at Green Bay
• Tampa Bay: Detroit at home, Seattle at home and at New Orleans
• Green Bay: at New England (gulp), Giants at home and Bears at home

Here’s the part where I predict how each team will finish.  Yeah, this will be fun to mock in three weeks.

Philadelphia looks to be sitting pretty. The Eagles will draw the Giants on a ridiculously short week (factoring in New York’s wild weekend of travel) and the Vikes at home. Those both feel like wins. Even if they only split those, it’s hard to see them losing to Dallas at home at the end. My gut tells me they’re an 11-5 squad that wins the NFC East.

Four teams. Two spots left.

Another obvious winner looks to be Tampa Bay. The Bucs should win their next two and may draw a Saints team with little to play for in week 17. Either way, it’s hard to see them finishing worse than 10-6.

I predicted the Giants to lose tonight, but actually I think they’ll win (made the pick on the hopes of an upset). The Giants should lose to Philly and defeat Washington, putting them at 10-5. But we’ll get back to that in a bit.

For the Bears, the next two feel like losses (not just saying that, either). The Vikings will be tough at home (wherever that home may be) and the Jets, while scuffling, are still much more talented than Chicago. That leaves the Bears at 9-6. Again, we’ll get back to that.

Finally, we come to the Packers. Next week is a loss. Sorry, gang, it just seems impossible that they’ll beat the Pats on the road. Green Bay is now 8-6, with the last two games to break down being the ones that ultimately decide their playoff fate. Drawing the Giants at home is a good matchup for Green Bay. That should be a win.

Under this scenario, the Giants finish 10-6. The Packers and Bears are both 9-6 heading into Jan. 2 at Lambeau. Definitely have to like Green Bay’s chances, but still, you never know. If the Packers win, the division – and the No. 3 spot – is theirs. If they lose, season over. The Bears would take the third spot, with the Giants serving as the No. 6 seed.

So, when you hear people say things like “division or bust,” really, they aren’t messing around. But even that scenario could be far-fetched as the Bears still need to lose their next two for the Packers to have a shot to steal the North. And the Packers will still have to defeat a dangerous Giants team that will be a lot healthier in two weeks.

In other words, a lot – scratch that: a WHOLE lot – of luck needs to come Green Bay’s way in the next few weeks in order to make a postseason spot a reality. And for a team as unlucky as the Packers, that seems unlikely.

-Chris Lempesis

1) With Frank [...]]]> With a week off due to the holiday weekend and quite honestly, the lack of Falcons blog (yes, I am calling you out ATL) we are back with our weekly Q&A with the opposition. This week Samuel Lam, 49ers blogger of the San Francisco Examiner joins us to help break down Sunday’s game.

1) With Frank Gore done for the year, what are the realistic expectations for Brian Westbrook for Sunday’s game and for the rest of the season?

One thing that the team should do is not give him the same amount of duties as Gore had. With Westbrook, they have to use his best skills as a player. If the 49ers can find a way to get Westbrook’s best talents on the field, then we could expect him help the offense move the ball down the field. The 49ers will miss Gore but there is a lot of experience from Westbrook that can help the 49ers offense move without missing a beat.

Don’t expect the same kind of numbers from Monday. Expect the team to put some more focus on the passing game to relieve some of the pressure that Westbrook would have to shoulder as the new feature back.

2) Troy Smith is now 3-1 as a starter, what has he done that Alex Smith couldn’t do?

Quite simply, Troy Smith has made the bigger plays. His mobility outside of the pocket and his ability to limit the turnovers has helped the 49ers offense a lot. Now, Troy Smith didn’t have great numbers in his last two games, but his knowledge of managing the offense and letting his teammates make the play has helped the 49ers find their wins. Alex Smith has the tendency to be strictly sold into the playbook while Troy Smith has done a better job of improvising when the pocket breaks. Right now, sticking with Troy and the potential he brings looks to be the best choice for the 49ers going forward.

3) The 49ers’ top two draft picks, lineman Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati, were two names a lot of people had on the Packers’ short list of possible draft picks this past April. How have the fared so far this year?

They have both been playing like rookies. There have been some really good plays and some mistakes. Davis has been victimized with the pass rush a lot more than the 49ers had hoped, but overall, he’s still a work in progress that the team believes in.
Iupati has played better and continues to work on his blocking. Some games he doesn’t get the right leverage on the opposition and the line breaks down. But if these two are given the right amount of chances, they can develop into two solid players for the 49ers.

4) The 49ers are only averaging 17 points/game and scored their highest total just last week with 27 points. The Packers on the other hand have one of the more prolific offenses in the league, so what will need to be done to keep the score low and in the 49ers’ favor?

The Packers have struggled with their running recently, so the 49ers are hoping that the Packers will throw the ball more. With that, the secondary will try to shut down the receivers and possibly get the linebacker into coverage as well.

The 49ers also are hoping that their pass rush, which has had its on and off moments, can pressure Rodgers early in the game. Most importantly, the best defense for the 49ers is their ability to score first and manage the clock. Keeping the Packers offense off the field will probably be their approach on Sunday.

5) What will it take for Mike Singletary to save his job at the end of the season?

A miracle. A playoff berth isn’t enough I believe. He has to make a huge splash in the playoffs to save his job. Two playoff wins, minimum, is my prediction. But it’s still hard to see Singletary sticking around when he had so much and he has prepared so poorly all year.

—–

Thanks again to Samuel Lam for joining us this week. Make sure to check out his blog before Sunday’s game to get all the 49ers info you need.

-Adam Somers

Rodgers is a West Coast kid, through and through. He grew up in Chico, California, and played college ball at Butte College before transfering to Cal. Ryan cut his teeth on the East Coast, growing up in Pennsylvania before making a name for himself at [...]]]> Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are strikingly different – and strikingly similar.

Rodgers is a West Coast kid, through and through. He grew up in Chico, California, and played college ball at Butte College before transfering to Cal. Ryan cut his teeth on the East Coast, growing up in Pennsylvania before making a name for himself at Boston College.

Both were first round picks, yes, but even there, the stories differ. Rodgers’ stock famously plummeted on draft day 2005, the youngster forced to sit and stew in the green room for all to see on ESPN as team after team passed on him. Finally, mercifully, the Green Bay Packers selected him 24th overall. Things went much easier for Ryan. He was a no-brainer selection, going third overall to the Atlanta Falcons in 2008, immediately showered with praise.

Rodgers spent three years learning the position before getting his shot as an NFL starter. Ryan was thrown into the gig immediately, being named starter during training camp of his rookie year.

Since the beginning of 2008 – the first year for each as full-time starter – though, Rodgers and Ryan have one unique similarity, one few players have ever faced before: Both were asked to be the faces of franchises at a serious crossroads. Most players crumble under such pressure, but Rodgers and Ryan have each proved more than up to the task, one of the more interesting wrinkles in Sunday’s NFC showdown between the Packers and Falcons at the Georgia Dome.

By now, every Packers fan knows the pressures Rodgers faced. He had to replace that Favre guy, a man many of us held to deity status. But Rodgers also had a lot going for him. Confidence and stability at the top of the organization. A coach and general manager each armed with brand new five-year extensions. A talented, young roster, particularly on offense.

Now, take a look at the pressures the man many call “Matty Ice” had to face. In short, the Falcons were a franchise in complete disarray upon his arrival, after playing in an NFC Championship game just three years prior.

Michael Vick was gone, leaving in disgrace after his dogfighting issues. The previous year, Bobby Petrino – less than one season into a five-year, $24 million contract – resigned as head coach before even making it a full 16 games. A job few wanted was taken by Mike Smith, a man with no head coaching experience at any level. The man guiding the personnel department was 42-year old Thomas Dimitroff, a mere child by NFL standards.

Enter Ryan, with his six-year, $72 million rookie deal. Hope you enjoy that money, kid. And, by the way – don’t screw up or else this franchise is REALLY dead.

Ryan, like Rodgers, never flinched in the face of such enormous pressure. That’s not to say both didn’t feel the pressure internally because, well, how could you not? But publicly, each stayed cool. That translated into success early for the both of them.

Rodgers’ success was statistical in year one, the “rookie” throwing for over 4,000 yards, 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions as the Pack scuffled to a 6-10 finish. Ryan, a true rookie, didn’t record such gaudy stats (over 3,400 yards, 16 touchdowns, 11 picks), but his team performed much better. The Falcons finished 11-5. earning a postseason spot along the way. Ryan also defeated Rodgers head-to-head in a game at Lambeau Field that year. Being at the game in person, you couldn’t help but be impressed by how well each handled themselves.

A year two slump followed for Ryan. His numbers – most notably completion percentage and interceptions – weren’t as impressive, he missed two games to injury and his team fell short of the second season. Rodgers turned in another outstanding year on the stat sheet and, this time, the Packers made the playoffs.

Oh, by the way, each player lost their only playoff game to the Arizona Cardinals in Glendale. Can’t make it up.

Year three has found each player coming into their own as stars in the truest sense. Ryan, through 10 games, has recorded 18 touchdowns, just five picks and is completing over 63 percent of his passes. Rodgers? In 10 games, he’s put up 19 touchdowns, nine interceptions and is completing over 64 percent of his passes. Rodgers is a better athlete with a stronger arm, while Ryan shows more cool in the pocket. Ice, indeed.

But it’s more than the numbers or playing styles. Each player has reached the point where they have full command of their lockerrooms. No doubts remain as to who leads the way for their teams. Each has fully grown into the role of “Face of the Franchise” and each wears it well.

And if each continues on their own path, Rodgers versus Ryan could very well turn into a rivalry to watch for quite some time.

-Chris Lempesis

With the season just past the midway point – and the [...]]]> So, before the season started, Adam, Geno (we’re really liking this nickname for him) and I decided to hit y’all with a three-pack of predictions for the 2010 season. Not going to give you a link to those – otherwise, why would you read this?

With the season just past the midway point – and the Green Bay Packers on bye – we thought this a good time to look back and see what we said then. And how that looks now.

As usual, we nailed certain picks, were slightly off on others and, okay, completely bombed a few. Without further adieu, let’s get to them now, shall we?

(Finally, the record in parentheses is how each person thought that team would finish. Also, we agreed on a lot of the same teams. But we’re going to try to limit it to one team per person. So, if say, I thought Dallas would be good and so did the other two, only I will suffer the embarassment.) 

The Clay Matthews picks

Chris on the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): “If you think I’m too high on this team, think again.”

Tennessee Titans (11-5): “I think the Titans are sneaky good and will surprise a lot of people this year.”

Oakland Raiders (8-8): “I have not lost my mind. The Raiders are better than you think.”

Detroit Lions (6-10): “Detroit’s still a year away, but it is getting a whole lot closer.”

Adam on the San Diego Chargers (10-6): “Not sold on this team at all.”

Atlanta Falcons (11-5): “Matt Ryan leads the Falcons back to the playoffs and proves that last year’s sophomore slump was an aberration.”

Buffalo Bills (2-14): “Jake Locker moves from one losing program to another. Feel a little bad for the guy.”

New Orleans Saints (10-6): “Every champion suffers a hangover, small or large. I think the Saints fall in the middle here, but Brees is at the point of his career that he won’t let the Saints miss the playoffs.”

Gene on the Arizona Cardinals (6-10): “What a spectacular fall for the 2008 NFC champions.”

Miami Dolphins (9-7): “I don’t trust Chad Henne enough to get them to the playoffs quite yet, though.”

Denver Broncos (5-11): “Josh McDaniels is presiding over a trainwreck in Denver, after taking over from Mike Shanahan’s legacy of competitive teams (and stunning egotism).”

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): “Don’t write this team off because it has a new quarterback … I’m taking them to return to the playoffs.”

The “Jarrett Bush-as-defensive-back” picks

Chris on the Minnesota Vikings (11-5): “As much as I wanted to have the Vikings finishing with a worse record, it’s simply not possible. They have too much talent overall to warrant that.”

Kansas City Chiefs (6-10): “The Chiefs had a nice little offseason for themselves, particularly in the draft. In the years to come, that will pay dividends. This year, however, it only pays off in a small improvement.”

Dallas Cowboys (11-5): “Dallas finished 11-5 last year and basically brings back the same team so a similar result appears likely this year.”

Washington Redskins (3-13): “To some, it might seem inconceivable that a team ran by Mike Shanahan and led on the field by Donovan McNabb could finish so poorly. Not this guy, though.”

Bonus whiff on a certain mercurial wideout: “Randy Moss will be supremely motivated.”

Adam on the Houston Texans (10-6): “The Texans finally break through.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13):  “All of this youth movement will pay off someday, right? Bucs fans hope so, there is nothing else for them to do.”

San Francisco 49ers (10-6): “I really like the team’s identity under Singletary and this team runs away with the worst division in football.”

Detroit Lions (9-7): “Yes I am shocking the world, the Detroit Lions in the playoffs.”

Gene on the St. Louis Rams (3-13): “They’re not going anywhere this year.”

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): “I think they keep it together well enough to make another trip to the playoffs.”

New York Jets (9-7): “I’ve got to be honest: Everything about this team screams “overrated.”

The Steelers (8-8): “I’ve seen a few people picking these guys to go to the Super Bowl, and I don’t get it.”

Yeah, so those are our picks. Good times. Lastly, Gene had the Pack losing at New Orleans in the NFC Title Game. Adam had them losing to New England in the Super Bowl. I had them defeating Baltimore in the Super Bowl.

If I’m wrong on everything else, hopefully I’m at least right on that.

-Chris Lempesis, Adam Somers and Gene Bosling