Let’s get down to business.

Here are three things the Green Bay Packers must, must, must do if they are to advance to the Su…wait…I don’t even want to say that phrase yet…defeat the Chicago Bears in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game (still get chills writing that).

The Packers, using something similar to sleight of hand, actually had us believing they had changed many of their famously - or is that infamously? - self-defeating ways from previous years. Also apparently gone were the poor special teams performances this [...]]]> Up until Monday night, it’d been quite a magic act pulled off by the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers, using something similar to sleight of hand, actually had us believing they had changed many of their famously - or is that infamously? - self-defeating ways from previous years. Also apparently gone were the poor special teams performances this team was known for, an especially impressive act of trickery as this team gave no indication it was capable of such change until about two weeks ago.

Of course, even the best magicians can’t make things vanish forever. At some point, the re-appearance always takes place. For Green Bay, that happened Monday night.

The dark side of the Packers reared its ugly head in full force in an embarassing 20-17 road loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, Green Bay showing few characteristics of this so-called “championship-caliber” team we’ve spent too much time making it out to be.

If the Packers (2-1 overall) were a championship-level squad, they would not have spent the entire evening killing themselves over…and over…and over with penalties. At no point did the time-tested principles of discipline or self-restraint enter into Green Bay’s thinking in this one, the Packers racking up a team-record 18 penalties for 152 yards with seemingly every position getting into the act at one point or another. At least it was everybody, right?

And, of course, you can’t rack up that many penalty yards without a few personal foul calls, the ultimate indicator of a sloppy, undisciplined team. Let’s see – there was an unneccessary roughness call, a roughing the passer call, a facemasking call…yeah, I think it’s safe to put Green Bay in that category, don’t you?

If the penalties weren’t enough to remind you all too well of the 2009 Packers’ evil twin, Shawn Slocum and his special teams’ whiz kids were there to seal the deal.

To punt to Devin Hester once, only to have Hester almost house it, is a bad – but ultimately forgiveable – mistake. After all, it’d been awhile since Hester was that Hester. But deciding to kick it to him again is an act of reckless idiocy that simply can not be overlooked. Hester got his mojo back on the first big return; you knew he’d cash in if he got another chance, no matter how good your still-suspect coverage units looked over the first two weeks.

Well, you knew unless you were Slocum, anyways.

None of this is to suggest the Packers didn’t outplay the Bears (3-0), because they clearly did. But you can find drawbacks in that fact, as well.

Yes, Green Bay looks fantastic offensively between the 20s. That’s nice, really. But if this team is the offensive juggernault we all think it is, why is scoring within the red zone slightly harder than finding an intelligent Bears fan? With all these weapons at their disposal, why can’t Aaron Rodgers find any of them often enough when it matters most? Last time I checked, championship teams aren’t settling for field goals – or worse, blocked field goals – at the end of eight-plus minute drives all that often.

Similar story with the defense. After all the pressure and heat that group put on Jay Cutler in the first half, why was Dom Capers going with the dreaded “sweep three, drop eight” sets time and time again towards the end of the game? Where was the Cutler-throat mentality this defense sells us on? Perhaps it was – oops, sorry, got cut off.

Green Bay just committed another defensive penalty.

If all of these things weren’t enough – they’re not? – the most damning aspect to emerge from the game is this: A championship team would’ve crushed Chicago, a truly underwhelming bunch if there ever was one.

Remember, the Bears were desperate to serve notice that they were for real. Brian Urlacher said the game would be the team’s biggest since its Super Bowl loss in 2007. The Packers had to know the Bears were going to fight them wire-to-wire, if for no other reason than, well, they always have under Lovie Smith.

Of course, none of this would’ve mattered to a championship team. Expecting a battle, you simply walk into their building and break their will. After all, you’re the better team and they are in your way. Simple as that. What you don’t do is beat them up-and-down the field for 60 minutes, only to repeatedly get in your own way at every single crucial turn.

The Packers gave us some indications they are – and will continue to be – a very good team in this loss.

But until they toss their evil twin off the cliff once and for all, it’s hard to see a championship in this team’s future. After this one, it seems like that’ll take an awful lot of sorcery.

-Chris Lempesis

For part two, it’s time to look at the tough guys on defense (and those wimps on special teams…I kid, I kid).

Front seven - Yeah, that’s right. We’re going a different way on this one. It seems ridiculous to compare the respective defensive lines/linebacking corps for the [...]]]> Okay, so we’ve covered the pretty boys on offense.

For part two, it’s time to look at the tough guys on defense (and those wimps on special teams…I kid, I kid).

Front seven - Yeah, that’s right. We’re going a different way on this one. It seems ridiculous to compare the respective defensive lines/linebacking corps for the teams because, really, they’re asked to do different things. So, instead, we’ll just give an overview of the two groups and then decide who’s got the edge.

The Green Bay Packers, obviously, run a 3-4 scheme. So far, so good for the front seven in that group. The run defense, while perhaps not operating at a No. 1-level, has been more than sound. The 5.3 yards per carry allowed is completely misleading, as most of those yards came from Michael Vick’s showing in week one (against a defense that had not prepared for him).

The linebackers have been quick to the ball, like last season, and the trio of Cullen Jenkins, B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett has been very good. That should continue, though Mike Neal’s presence will be required on the line at some point so those three can avoid hitting empty on the tank. He’s unlikely to play in this one, though, due to his rib injury.

The pass rush generated from this group has been outstanding, as Green Bay led the NFL in sacks coming into the weekend (10). Most of this stems from Clay Matthews hitting beast mode, of course, but it’s not just him. Raji and Jenkins have also been strong in this area. Matthews should have a field day with this weak Chicago line, but at some point, another linebacker is going to have to step it up.

For the Bears, it’s the same old Cover 2 scheme that they’ve always run. If you don’t know, in this scheme, most of the pressure is generated from the front four, while the linebackers are mainly asked to play the run and drop in coverage. The run defense has been, in a word, sterling. Chicago had the NFL’s top-ranked run defense through two games, allowing just 1.4 yards per carry (with a long of eight. Eight!). Brian Urlacher is healthy and playing near his old level, with running mate Lance Briggs continuing to be the league’s most underrated linebacker.

The Bears’ pass rush has not been as effective, recording just two sacks so far. Julius Peppers, the team’s big-name offseason acquisition, has just one, although he also knocked Detroit’s Matthew Stafford out in week one with a shoulder injury. Look for him to show up in a big way here, as it’s a nationally-televised night game (his specialty). Tommie Harris is a very good d-tackle and Mark Anderson is an end who knows how to get to the quarterback.

In the end, though, I think Green Bay is better in more front-seven facets than is Chicago. Edge: Packers

Secondary - Okay, I’m keeping this one real short. For Green Bay: Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, Nick Collins and Morgan Burnett.

For Chicago: Zackary Bowman, Danieal Manning, Chris Harris and Charles Tillman.

Who would you rather have? Edge: Packers

Special Teams - The biggest area of surprise for the 2010 Packers so far. The coverage units have been fantastic, as has kick returner Jordy Nelson and kicker Mason Crosby. Punter Tim Masthay has been just okay, but even he hasn’t been terrible. Williams hasn’t made any mistakes as a punt returner, but at some point, you’d like to see him break one.

The Bears have two really good returners in Johnny Knox and the always-fearsome Devin Hester. Kicker Robbie Gould has been his usual sturdy self and punter Brad Maynard is one of the best in the business. While I like what I’ve seen from Green Bay in this department, Chicago has been better for longer and could definitely take advantage of the Packers here. Edge: Bears

While the Packers take six out of eight categories overall, this game will still be close. The Bears are at home and desperately want to serve notice that they are a team you need to take seriously. Plus, Lovie Smith’s teams always battle Green Bay until the end. I said the Packers would win, 27-24, and I’m sticking to that, mainly because of their overall edge in talent.

But expect a nailbiter, folks. See you after the game.

-Chris Lempesis

Makes sense – this is a Packers’ blog, after all.

But there are three other teams in the NFC North, of course, and we’re going to kick off our draft week coverage – seriously, [...]]]> The last few weeks at OBOD have been dedicated entirely to discussing the upcoming draft as it pertains to the Green Bay Packers.

Makes sense – this is a Packers’ blog, after all.

But there are three other teams in the NFC North, of course, and we’re going to kick off our draft week coverage – seriously, the draft is three days away…holy crap – by taking a look at what those teams could/should do Thursday through Saturday to improve themselves.

(Quick note: I’ll be rolling out a Packers version of this on Wednesday.)

Chicago Bears

Day one: Have everyone over at head coach Lovie Smith’s house to watch game four of Blackhawks/Predators. Study the Blackhawks. Take notes on how to use the draft to build a competitive team, as the Blackhawks did. Feel free to watch game three of Bulls/Cavs during the commercial breaks. Keep Jay Cutler away from the open bar, though.

Day two: During the early part of the evening (i.e., the second round), you can go with either Cubs/Brewers or White Sox/Mariners. Again, you have no picks here and baseball is a good way to pass the time. Personally, I’d go with the Cubs/Brewers game – Adam’s right, I am a closet Brewers fan - but the choice is yours. Once the third round gets rolling later in the night, get excited – you finally get to draft someone!

But who should you draft? Well, you’re lucky in the sense that you’ve got clearly defined needs (offensive line, cornerback and wide receiver). I’d go with an offensive lineman; Cutler’s your biggest asset going forward and you need to protect him much better than you did last season. Ole Miss’ John Jerry should be on the board at pick No. 75 and he’d be a nice fit. He’s an old-school mauler type at 6-feet, 5-inches and 332 pounds. He played right tackle in college, but is likely a guard in the pros. Either way, he’d provide immediate relief to that group.

Day three: I’d hold off on a wide receiver in round four. You’ve got some young talent there (Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett and Devin Aromashodu) and you should give those guys one more year to see if any of them can turn into a true No. 1 wideout. You need to snag a safety or corner. If you go the safety route, I’d look long and hard at Florida’s Major Wright. He’s raw, but his speed, recovery time and zone skills make him a nice fit for your Cover-2 scheme. As for a corner, UCLA’s Alterraun Verner would work nicely. He’s small (5-feet, 10-inches) and a bit slow, but he’s got great ball skills and knows how to play the zone.

In the fifth round, take either a corner or safety (whichever spot you didn’t address in round four). Round out your draft by taking a wide receiver in the sixth round and a developmental quarterback in the seventh.

Detroit Lions

Day one: First, let me say that – for the first time in my life, seemingly – there appears to be a legitimate plan in place in Detroit, one that doesn’t rely on drafting wide receivers. That bodes well for the future.

I’ve had you taking Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh with the No. 2 pick in each of my mock drafts and I’ll stick with that. He’s a dual-purpose difference-maker and could be a force for the next decade. Suh, Corey Williams and Sammie Hill give you a nice three-man rotation at d-tackle. Those guys, along with Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch, will give you a greatly improved d-line next season.

Day two: You have almost no corners. That must be fixed (and for God’s sake, stay away from Pacman!). Alabama’s Kareem Jackson was dominant in a pro-style defense. He brings a real swagger with him and he can play – and make an impact – right away. Take him in the second round. He’ll be around for a long time. 

Now it’s round three and your truly bad offensive line can no longer be ignored. Trading for Rob Sims cleaned things up at the left guard spot. But left tackle Jeff Backus has never been anything special and he turns 33 in September. Luckily for you, your future left tackle resides in-state: Hillsdale’s Jared Veldheer. He’s 6-feet, 8-inches, 312 pounds and boasts the athleticism of a tight end. He could cover Matthew Stafford for the rest of Stafford’s career once he steps in. Some say he needs a year; I think he could be ready by mid-season.

Day three: I like running back Kevin Smith, but more as a dual-option back. You need a true smash-mouth runner to compliment him. He’s a major gamble, no question about it, but Oregon’s LeGarrette Blount would fill that role perfectly. He’d bring great value as a fourth-rounder and I think Jim Schwartz can keep him in line.

Round out your draft with more corner and o-line depth and grab a safety somewhere in there, too, if you can.

Minnesota Vikings

Day one: Before we begin, I just want to reiterate that I hate you.

Okay, with that out of the way, I think you need a corner more than anything. Antoine Winfield is getting older and Cedric Griffin could miss the first six weeks (torn ACL). But I’m just not sure the value will be there. It’s a deep draft at that spot, anyways. Defensive tackle Pat Williams is still very good, but he turns 38 in October. You need to find his eventual replacement. Alabama’s Terrence Cody is a gamble because of his weight troubles, but when you put on the tape, this guy dominates. Cody, Kevin Williams and Jared Allen could be a scary threesome for the next eight-to-10 years.

Day two: We’ve reached the second round and it’s now time to take a corner. Wake Forest’s Brandon Ghee has tremendous speed and is an excellent tackler (he reminds me of Winfield in that sense). His ball skills are a work in progress, but could improve with good coaching.

In the third round, you must fill the void left by Chester Taylor’s departure and find a backup for Adrian Peterson. USC’s Joe McKnight would be a good fit. He’s not an every down runner, but that’s not a big deal – you’ve already got one of those. McKnight has great speed and vision (particularly outside the tackles) and is a very good pass catcher.

Day three: Left guard Steve Hutchinson is an elite player, obviously, but he turns 33 in November. Your other guard, Anthony Herrera, is average. In other words, you could use some depth there. One guy I love as a fourth-rounder is Arkansas’ Mitch Petrus. He’s raw (just converted to guard two years ago), but he’s got the athleticism of a fullback/tight end (the spots he played before his conversion). Plus, he tied the combine record with 45 bench press reps – simply astounding.

I’d round out my draft by looking for depth at safety, outside linebacker and wide receiver.

So there’s my two cents on what the other three NFC North teams should do in the draft.

I can’t wait until later in the week when they take me up on exactly none of it.

-Chris Lempesis

Now, with the weekend drawing to an end, it seemed like a good time to provide an updated look (and, as always, give some thoughts on it all). After all, it’s hard [...]]]> Friday morning, I provided a brief look at what the other three NFC North teams had been doing in free agency up to that point.

Now, with the weekend drawing to an end, it seemed like a good time to provide an updated look (and, as always, give some thoughts on it all). After all, it’s hard to find a division that was busier than the NFC North.

Chicago Bears - In terms of activity and dollars spent, the Bears have been the unquestioned kings of free agency thus far. On Friday alone, they dished out roughly $121 million to three players: defensive end Julius Peppers (six years, $91 million with $42 million in guaranteed money), running back Chester Taylor (four years, $12.5 million with $7 million in guaranteed money) and tight end Brandon Manumaleuna (five years, $17 million with $6 million in guaranteed money).

When you consider just how much pressure is on general manager Jerry Angelo and head coach Lovie Smith to win – and win now – the highly active approach was likely necessary (especially when you consider Chicago doesn’t pick until the third round this year).

If I’m a Bears fan (thank God I’m not), I like the Taylor and Manumaleuna signings. Taylor turns 31 in September, yes, but he’s only had season in which he carried the ball over 200 times (2006, when he ran for 1,216 yards in his first year in Minnesota). He’s got much more tread left on his tires than the average back that age. His role declined in Minnesota after 2006 due to the presence of that Peterson fella, but he’s still a crafty, tough runner who brings extra value as a pass catcher. Matt Forte is just not a No. 1 back and the Bears, as a team, were 29th in rushing yards per game last season (a paltry 93.3). Taylor will boost that number.

Manumaleuna – hate typing that name already – is a pure blocking tight end at 295 pounds. He should help in protecting Jay Cutler as he’s basically an offensive lineman. Plus, the Bears can now look into trading Greg Olson or Desmond Clark for added draft picks as new offensive coordinator Mike Martz really doesn’t use the tight end all that much.

If I’m a Bears fan (again, thank God I’m not), I’m not on board with the Peppers signing. Sure, he’s a freak of nature, physically, and can take over games. But those things only happen when HE wants them to and far too often, Peppers just doesn’t want them to. He takes plays/games/seasons off. Now that he’s paid in full, something he’s wanted for a long time, you have to wonder if “Bad Peppers” shows up even more now.

I kind of get why the Bears did it – their secondary stinks and Brian Urlacher’s body is breaking down, leaving Lance Briggs as their only real player in the final two levels of the defense. They’re hoping Peppers’ presence can cover for some of those weaknesses. I’m just not on board with it if I’m a fan. As a Packers fan, here’s how I know the Bears made a bad move: When the Vikings got Jared Allen, I thought, “Oh, no – this guy dominates week in and week out.” When Peppers signed Friday, I thought, “Eh, that guy only shows up about half the time, anyways, and they STILL gave him $42 million in guaranteed money.” See the difference?

Detroit Lions - The Lions have been almost as busy as the Bears. They’ve signed defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (four years, $26 million) and wide receiver Nate Burleson (five years, $25 million with $11 million in guaranteed money) and also traded for defensive tackle Corey Williams and cornerback Chris Houston.

In my Friday morning post, I pretty much bashed Detroit for these moves – it just traded for Houston on Sunday afternoon – although I did like the Vanden Bosch signing. After I stood back and looked at it, though, I have to say I think the Lions, shockingly, did a decent job here.

Detroit needed to upgrade its defensive line in a major way; Cliff Avril led the team in sacks last season with just 5.5. Vanden Bosch, as I said Friday, is not the player he once was. But he’s still a hard-working player who you have to account for. Williams was a major flop in Cleveland as he was never cut out to be a 3-4 end. He’ll move back to tackle now, though, where he had seven sacks in each of his last two years in Green Bay. If Jim Schwartz can keep him motivated and get him in a rotation, he’ll provide a boost. With those two – and, say, Gerald McCoy, who we have them taking in our latest mock draft – the Lions will get to the quarterback much more this season.

Detroit clearly overpaid for Burleson, but he did have 63 catches for 812 yards for Seattle last year, so he’ll be a major upgrade over Bryant Johnson and take some heat off Calvin Johnson. Houston never lived up to his second-round pick status in Atlanta, but he still has some talent. And considering all Detroit gave up was a sixth round pick – plus swapping fifth rounders with the Falcons – Houston isn’t much of a gamble.

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings have been very quiet thus far. A lot of that is likely due to the fact that, as one of the final four teams in the playoffs, Minnesota can’t sign any restricted free agents and can only sign unrestricted ones if it loses one of its own (plus, the first-year salaries on the two players have to match up).

Well, the Vikings have two openings now as they lost Taylor on Friday and guard/tackle Artis Hicks on Sunday (signed a three-year contract with the Washington Redskins). While they still have Peterson, Taylor’s loss leaves a big hole. He was so good as a third down back/pass catcher. Peterson can probably take over the third down role, but he is not a pass catcher. Plus, if he gets hurt, Minnesota basically now has no one behind him. The Vikings will need to address that situation soon.

Hicks, while primarily a backup, provided great depth because of his versatility. Like Taylor, his departure leaves Minnesota thin in the event something happens to a starting o-lineman. Last season, Taylor made $3.1 million and Hicks made just under $1 million, so the Vikings should be able to find decent players at those positions for those prices. But, surprisingly, there seems to be no sense of urgency coming from the organization. The Vikings don’t seem to even have any interest in anyone. Perhaps someone should tell them they were just one bad Judas pass away from a possible trip to the Super Bowl.

Wait, we’re Packers fans – nevermind. Nobody say anything.

-Chris Lempesis

The other was expected to be the first legend a team had had in over 50 years.

The tasks – and those lofty, borderline unfair, expectations – facing Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler were similar.

The results so far have been anything but.

Round two of what was expected to be a [...]]]> One was expected to replace a legend.

The other was expected to be the first legend a team had had in over 50 years.

The tasks – and those lofty, borderline unfair, expectations – facing Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler were similar.

The results so far have been anything but.

Round two of what was expected to be a long-term divisional rivalry at quarterback takes place Sunday at Soldier Field. At this point, though, it hasn’t resembled much of a rivalry.

On the stat sheet, there’s Rodgers with his 65.5 percent completion rate, 3,399 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His QB rating sits at 103.3.

Lagging miles behind is Cutler, with his 62 percent completion rate, 2,814 yards, 17 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. His QB rating sits at 75.3.

Outside of the numbers, in terms of the type of player each actually is, both have rockets for right arms. That’s about where the similarities end.

Rodgers possesses an ability to avoid the crucial turnover and big-time mobility for the position. Sometimes he hangs on to the ball longer than you’d like. Sometimes he chases the big play when it’s unnecessary. But with the proper coaching and game planning, as we’ve seen over the past four weeks, those aspects of his game can easily be corrected.

Cutler’s arm is good enough to bail him out and, from time-to-time, he can hit throws that very few QBs can. But far more often, his arrogance clouds his vision. He forces ridiculous passes that often end up in the hands of opposing defenders, often at crucial points in a game.

The two handle themselves in completely different manners, as well. Rodgers comes across as confident, calm and poised. When things go well, Rodgers is quick to pass the credit along to almost anyone not named Aaron Rodgers. When things go poorly, Rodgers is the first to stand up and accept the blame.

Cutler comes across as arrogant, high-strung and quick to blame. He seems to possess a modicum of class when things go well. But when things fail, look out. Countless times, when things aren’t working, there’s Cutler getting in the face of his receivers, coaches and the occasional referee.

Cutler, along with some other folks in the Bears’ organization, refused to sit down and talk with NBC Sports’ Bob Costas before the team’s Sunday night game with Philadelphia a few weeks back. “Too busy preparing for the game” was the official reason. “We don’t want to discuss why our new quarterback has sucked and we look like idiots for giving up so much to get him” was, of course, the real reason.

Either way, the move made Cutler look like a spoiled baby who didn’t want to face any tough questions. Well, too bad Jay. Franchise quarterbacks face the heat from the media. The late Steve McNair – still can’t believe I’m writing that – would pull himself off the trainer’s table, no matter how hurt he was or how much his team had just lost by, to go face the press. Why? Because as a leader, McNair was known to say, that’s just what you do.

Contrast that to the summer of 2008. Rodgers, faced with the enormous pressure of replacing you-know-who, never shied away from a media request, no matter how harsh or pro-Judas the line of questioning was. Rodgers understood that, to lead a group of men, you had to be willing to do whatever it took. If that meant facing the firing squad, so be it. Besides, Rodgers’ confidence in himself was high enough, even then, that he knew what he could do. He could make the pro-Judas reporters look like idiots in the end.

And, as lopsided as the “rivalry” has been thus far, it could become even more so in the years ahead. The Packers have surrounded Rodgers with a core of young talent, stability in the coaching staff (keyed by the recent four-game winning streak) and a front office that will always be smart with its money and draft picks.

The Bears have surrounded Cutler with a core of old, past-their-prime talent, instability in the coaching staff (Head coach Lovie Smith is only somewhat on the hot seat, but the team will likely have a new offensive coordinator next year) and a front office that won’t be picking until the third round in this year’s draft.

In other words, one has already taken some huge steps in building his own legacy.

The other has taken some huge steps in becoming the next Jeff George.

-Chris Lempesis

We know about the primetime television audience.

We know about the rivalry.

As fun as all those things are – and, believe me, they are fun – we should probably, at some point, talk about the actual matchup itself.

Well, that time is now, as we are going to break down all the important [...]]]> We know about the storylines.

We know about the primetime television audience.

We know about the rivalry.

As fun as all those things are – and, believe me, they are fun – we should probably, at some point, talk about the actual matchup itself.

Well, that time is now, as we are going to break down all the important information and matchups that comprise Packers vs. Bears, Sunday night at Lambeau Field at 7:20 p.m. Lambeau time.

(Gives me chills just writing that)

Weather report: At the time of this posting, the Weather Channel forecast for kickoff suggest a possible high of 79 degrees and a possible low of 52 degrees, with zero chance of rain. That’s likely to change a half-dozen times between now and kickoff, but at the moment it sounds like it will be a perfect early fall evening at Lambeau.

Injury report

Packers

Will Blackmon (quad), Brandon Jackson (ankle) and B.J. Raji (ankle).

Raji practiced today and it sounds like he’s planning on playing. Whether the coaching staff agrees remains to be seen. Still, I think the big fella will play, albeit in a slightly reduced role.

Jackson and Blackmon, however, haven’t practiced in awhile. Jackson is almost guaranteed to be out, I think. Blackmon will test his quad today, but he’s been out with that injury far longer than originally thought and I doubt it heels in time for Sunday.

Bears

The only real major player battling an injury for the Bears is cornerback Charles Tillman (back).

Tillman was listed as a full participant in Thursday’s practice. Chicago is being secretive, as you’d expect, regarding his status but my bet is that he’ll play.

Key matchups

Offense

Packers wide receivers vs. Bears secondary

The Bears’ secondary won’t be quite the unit we’re used to seeing. In other words, it likely won’t be as good.

As of now, Chicago is definitely starting a rookie sixth-round pick, Al Afalava, at strong safety.

Tillman, even if he plays, won’t be 100 percent. If he doesn’t, Trumaine McBride, a third-year player with very little experience, will go in his spot. Nathan Vasher will start at the other corner. But he’s struggled with injuries and inconsistent play over the past two seasons.

Kevin Payne is the starting free safety and he’s a hard-hitter who is solid overall.

Regardless, the Packers elite group of wideouts should have plenty of opportunities to make plays.

Defense

Packers linebackers vs. Bears tight ends

With the Bears so questionable at wideout (Devin Hester as a No. 1 target? Really?), it’s a safe bet that their very good tight ends – Greg Olson and Desmond Clark – will be Jay Cutler’s top targets in this contest.

The Packers have to make sure those two don’t own the seams or else, suddenly, the whole field will open up for Cutler. The linebacking group, which has some strong cover guys (Brandon Chillar, Nick Barnett) and some who, well, aren’t strong (Brady Poppinga, A.J. Hawk) will have to be physical with Olson and Clark to keep them from finding space.

Special teams

Packers cover teams vs. Bears returners

Hester wasn’t his normal game-breaking self last season as a returner, likely because he had more responsibilities as a wideout. Still, he’s always dangerous. Danieal Manning handles the kickoff duties and all he did was lead the league in return average last season.

The Packers struggled on coverage duties last year. The group appears to have improved in the preseason, but it will be put to the test Sunday. It has to respond.

The Packers will win if….

1. The offensive line creates space for Ryan Grant and Grant takes advantage. Most of the talk surrounding the Packers’ preseason showings dealt with how well Aaron Rodgers looked. Rodgers was fantastic, to be sure, but the o-line and Grant are the real keys to success Sunday night. With the Bears’ secondary being so weak, you have to think head coach Lovie Smith – who is calling the plays on defense this year – will scheme it so that group is covered (i.e., running a lot of nickel and dime defenses early). If Chicago is sitting back on its heels, the running game should have a chance to get rolling early on. If it does, that will get the Bears leaning forward. Then its playaction time and the Pack will dominate.
2. Cutler is pressured. Yes, saying that you have to pressure the quarterback sends me dangerously close to “Master of the Obvious” territory, I know. But with Cutler, it’s really true. Remember, he doesn’t know his receivers that well yet. So, if the defense pressures Cutler, he will rely on his gunslinger mentality (he’s got a big arm and is a huge Judas fan, keep in mind). That will cause early and, oftentimes, poor throws. That will allow the Packers’ playmaking secondary to do what they do best: Create turnovers.
3. Green Bay gets off to a hot start. First quarters were not good for the Packers last season. A hot start Sunday is key because it will just reinforce for the team that it is as good as it was in the preseason. That type of momentum spreads throughout the entire team. It also lets Chicago know what type of game its in for. The Bears, a far-less talented team, could then start pressing in order to keep up.

How I think the game will go

Offensively, it’s all set up for the Packers to dominate. The Bears defense is on the downside even with a proven mastermind like Smith calling the plays. The Packers offense, on the other hand, is on the cusp of becoming one of the league’s best. If the o-line does its job, Green Bay will score in bunches. Period.

Defensively, the Packers have to prove the strong preseason showings weren’t a fluke. I think they will, somewhat, although don’t expect that group to dominate like it did. The games count now and the Bears have had some time to look at the tape from the preseason. Plus, Cutler is going to make one or two brilliant throws because, well, he almost always seems to and Matt Forte will get his touches and yards. That said, the Packers’ secondary is so good, I expect they will come up with at least a turnover or two.

That will prove to be the difference as Green Bay will make a statement that it is for real.

Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 20

-Chris Lempesis

For the record, I have him third…and that’s only because I don’t know how good Matthew Stafford is really going to be. I wanted to put [...]]]> With Judas’ return to the NFC North, there seems to be an awful lot of discussion amongst fans where he fits on the list of quarterbacks already in the division.

For the record, I have him third…and that’s only because I don’t know how good Matthew Stafford is really going to be. I wanted to put him fourth, but even I couldn’t do it.

That got me thinking, who are the other best’s at their respective positions in the division?

After putting some thought into it, I came up with my list. Some were easier to pick than others, that’s for sure.

Anyways, here’s the list. Some fun and debatable reading if you happen to find yourself with a case of the Mondays.

(And if you didn’t pick up on the reference in the title, just Google Joe Esposito+You’re the best around. It will be the most awesome few minutes of your day, I promise.)

-Chris Lempesis

Best quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

Last season, Rodgers threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns with a shoddy offensive line and an injured shoulder. He’s healthy now and has an improved o-line in front of him. He’s got all the intangibles you look for in a leader and, with a ridiculous set of weapons to work with, he should be even better this year. Runner up: Jay Cutler (Bears).

Best running back: Adrian Peterson (Vikings)

This was the easiest one to pick. Peterson is big, fast and aggressive – basically everything you’d want in a back. He’s already put up two huge seasons and is the only runner currently in the league with a shot to hit 2,000 yards. As Packers fans, we’re going to hate this guy for a long time to come. Runner up: Ryan Grant (Packers)

Best fullback: None

When I looked at the fullbacks currently in the division, none really jumped out at me, which is to say there isn’t a best in the bunch. So rather than make some uninformed guess, I just left it blank. That’s the kind of honesty you get at OBOD.

Best wide receiver: Calvin Johnson (Lions)

That Johnson has amassed the numbers he has playing with the types of QBs he’s had (cough, Jon Kitna, cough, cough) shows just how good he really is. For example, he put up over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Blessed with size (6-feet, 5-inches and 235 pounds) and an ability to outrun and outjump almost anyone, Johnson is a freak of Randy Moss proportions. Imagine what he could do with a good quarterback. Runner up: Greg Jennings (Packers)

Best tight end: Greg Olson (Bears)

There’s some good tight ends in the division, but no really great ones. In that event, I picked the player with the most upside right now. That player is Olson. At 6-feet, 5-inches and 252 pounds, Olson has more than enough size. But he can also run, has good hands and a natural playmaking ability. He blossomed in year two last season, recording 574 yards and five touchdowns. With a new quarterback who likes utilizing the tight end, Olson should put up much bigger numbers this year. Runner up: Jermichael Finley (Packers)

Best offensive lineman: Steve Hutchinson (Vikings)

Hutchinson is getting up there in age (he’ll be 32 in November). Still, he’s a lock to make the Pro Bowl every season, almost never misses a game and is equally good in pass protection and run blocking. He’s got good size (6-feet, 5-inches and 313 pounds) but can move pretty well. Runner up: Olin Kreutz (Bears)

Best defensive lineman: Jared Allen (Vikings)

Of all the non-Judas Vikings, this is the guy I really dispise. With his mullet and phony attempts at humor/trying to prove he’s a cowboy (don’t get cowboy confused with white trash, Jared), how could you not? Still, Allen is a hell of a defensive end. He can play the run almost as well as the pass. But it’s as a pass rusher where he really makes his mark. He recorded 14.5 sacks in his first year in purple and he has a nonstop motor that will likely allow him to put up similar numbers this year. I would have put Aaron Kampman here, but he’s a linebacker now. Runner up: Cullen Jenkins (Packers)

Best linebacker: Lance Briggs (Bears)

I have, for years, thought that Brian Urlacher was ridiculously overrated. Now I can finally share that with the masses! Briggs is the true star of the Bears linebacking corps, a sideline-to-sideline player who can cover, rush the passer and stop the run. The Bears defense could survive without Urlacher; the same can’t be said if Briggs goes down. Runner up: Nick Barnett (Packers)

Best defensive back: Charles Woodson (Packers)

Woodson will be 33 in October and many probably thought he’d be out of the game by then. No, no, not Woodson – Woodson is flourishing. He made his fifth Pro Bowl appearance last season and, with a new scheme that is tailor-made for his playmaking abilities, he’ll likely be there again this year. He’s been dominant in the preseason and that should only get better. Runner up: Nick Collins (Packers)

Best kicker: Jason Hanson (Lions)

Yes, he’s 38. Yes, he’s spent the majority of his career kicking indoors. Still, Hanson is as solid and reliable as they come. Consider last season where he led the NFL in field goal percentage (95.5 percent) and, oh yeah, became the first kicker ever to go 8-for-8 on field goals over 50 yards. Runner-up: Robbie Gould (Bears)

Best punter: Brad Maynard (Bears)

With 40 – yes, 40 – punts landing inside opponents’ 20 yard line last season, Maynard proved a master at setting his defense up to win the field position battle. He’s getting up there in age, turning 35 this year, but is still one of the best around. Runner up: Chris Kluwe (Vikings)

Best coach: Lovie Smith (Bears)

Since Smith is the only coach in the division to reach a Super Bowl, he seemed the most obvious choice. But the real reason he’s here is for his ability to win even with seemingly inferior talent. The guy is as smart and tough as they come. Runner up: Mike McCarthy (Packers)

The Bears, longing for the days of, well, Sid Luckman, finally got themselves a big-name quarterback this afternoon when they acquired Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos.

Cutler came with a price tag befitting a big name, as well: Chicago’s first round [...]]]> Well, it looks like that Sunday night Bears-Packers season opener at Lambeau just got a whole lot more interesting.

The Bears, longing for the days of, well, Sid Luckman, finally got themselves a big-name quarterback this afternoon when they acquired Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos.

Cutler came with a price tag befitting a big name, as well: Chicago’s first round picks in 2009 and 2010, its third round pick in 2009 and the team’s current starting quarterback, Kyle Orton. The Bears also pick up Denver’s fifth round selection in this year’s draft.

The move makes the Bears a buzzworthy team heading into next season and Chicago fans, at least for the moment, are excited to have an actual quarterback. For some Bears fans, it’s the first time in their lives they can actually say such a thing.

Cutler is a young quarterback who certainly has some potential, but when you step back and take a good look at both Cutler and what the Bears gave up to get him, the move just doesn’t add up.

Cutler has a record of just 17-20 as a starter playing in a system that has gotten good numbers from some very average quarterbacks (the names of Brian Griese and Jake Plummer come to mind here).

His “career” year came last season, when he threw for 4,526 yards, certainly a great amount. But 25 touchdowns to 18 interceptions? Not a very good ratio (his career rating of 54 to 37 also leaves something to be desired).

When his team, in the midst of an AFC West divisional title chase last season,  needed him to be his best, he was anything but. Denver lost three straight games to end the season, with its “star” quarterback compiling QB ratings of 74.3, 72.4 and 74.9. He also threw just two touchdowns compared to four interceptions.

Positively Grossman-esque.

Things are even less rosy with regards to the team he’s going to.

Once known for their top-flight defense, the Bears are nowhere near as good as they once were on that side of the ball. Last season, they finished 21st in total yards allowed, including a 30th place showing in passing yards allowed. They also were 22nd in sacks. Head coach Lovie Smith will take over play-calling duties for the defense this season, but even he can only do so much.

What’s that have to do with Cutler, you ask?

The Broncos had a similarly poor defense last season. That meant Cutler had to carry a lot of the load in order for the team to win. Mixed results followed.

It will be a similar story this season – in fact, it could be worse as the Bears lack any of the consistent, big-time playmakers that Denver had. And don’t mention Devin Hester, Matt Forte or Greg Olson, Bears fans – remember, I said consistent, big-time playmakers. There’s no one close to Brandon Marshall’s level on Chicago’s offense.

The Bears could always get him some help in the dra – oh wait, they can’t because they only have one pick in the first three rounds now.

If all of this wasn’t bad enough, there’s also one more factor to consider: Cutler seems like a real jerk.

This is a guy who just could not deal with the fact that his new head coach (Josh McDaniels) might have been trying to get rid of him in order to acquire a quarterback (Matt Cassel) that he helped groom and who knew the system he was going to install.

Cutler pulled a Favre – yes, I said it – and got his agent, the increasingly detestable Bus Cook, to inform the team he wanted to be traded. Then, like Favre – yes, I said it again – he tried to act like the whole thing wasn’t his fault.

This is a business, sweetheart – grow up a little bit. If Cutler had a hard time dealing with McDaniels, how in the world is he going to deal with Smith, who seems like one tough, old school S.O.B.?

In the end, you come to the conclusion that while the Bears might have finally gotten a quarterback, they’ll likely be kicking themselves for a long time for what they gave up.

Besides, we still have the best quarterback in the division.

-Chris Lempesis