Let’s get down to business.

Here are three things the Green Bay Packers must, must, must do if they are to advance to the Su…wait…I don’t even want to say that phrase yet…defeat the Chicago Bears in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game (still get chills writing that).

Well, fear not – we’ve got Packers football tonight. Green Bay heads into Soldier Spaceship – er, Soldier Field – for a Monday Night contest with the Chicago Bears (7:30 p.m. Lambeau Time).

In this matchup of 2-0 teams, who has the edge [...]]]> Man, Sunday’s kind of stink when there’s no Green Bay Packers game, don’t they?

Well, fear not – we’ve got Packers football tonight. Green Bay heads into Soldier Spaceship – er, Soldier Field – for a Monday Night contest with the Chicago Bears (7:30 p.m. Lambeau Time).

In this matchup of 2-0 teams, who has the edge in the position battles? Let’s take a look now. This is part one; part two will run Monday morning.

Quarterback - It’s been an up-and-down first two games for everyone’s preseason MVP, Aaron Rodgers. By my count, he’s played four really good quarters, three bad quarters and one decent quarter. That’s not to say he’s been terrible, just that he hasn’t been flawless. Jay Cutler has been the Cutler that Bears fans thought they were getting a year ago so far, throwing five touchdowns against just one pick. Mike Martz’s system appears to be suiting him just fine, though it is just two games. Edge: Packers

Running backs - One game into the Brandon Jackson-John Kuhn experiment, things aren’t looking so great. While it shouldn’t hurt the Packers too much, long-term, you have to wonder how the offense will hold up in a game where Rodgers struggles. Matt Forte hasn’t done much better on the ground (2.9 yards per carry), but he is bringing great value in the passing game (12 catches, 188 yards, three scores). He’ll act as Martz’s Marshall Faulk in this offense. Packers fans know Chester Taylor from his Vikings’ days as an outstanding pass-catcher and very good pass protector. Look for him to get involved more than a few times in this one. Edge: Bears

Wide Receivers - Things are going pretty much as expected for Green Bay’s highly touted receiving corps, although you have to wonder why the team is dead-set on making James Jones such a factor. Note to broadcasters: He is not a No. 1 receiver for any team in the league and is only a two for about one-third of the teams. No clear No. 1 has emerged for the Bears yet, but the group of Johnny Knox, Devin Hester and Devin Aromashodu is young with plenty of upside. Upside doesn’t win the day here. Edge: Packers

Tight ends - While he has not set the league on fire, as many expected, Jermichael Finley has still turned in two very good games. Last week, we saw what happens when teams decide to single-cover him. Not sure if we’ll see much of that again. Donald Lee has not been a factor at all and Tom Crabtree is a blocker. Much has been written about how Martz does not like to use the tight ends in the passing game. So far, that seems correct as Greg Olsen has just five catches for 76 yards (and a score). Olsen is very talented, though, and should not be overlooked. At 295 pounds, Brandon Manumaleuna is primarily a blocker and will stay in to help cover Cutler. Edge: Packers

Offensive line - Green Bay’s offensive line has been decent so far, but Rodgers has faced more pressure than you’d prefer . The group needs to reach another level. Chad Clifton (knee) is a game-time decision; if he can’t go, in steps rookie Bryan Bulaga. Either way, Chicago will attack that side of the field. The Bears’ front five hasn’t been great, either, and will be going with a pair of guys, Frank Omiyale (left tackle) and Kevin Shaffer (right tackle), playing out of position due to injuries. If the Bears think they can get away with all those five-and-seven-step drops behind this group, they’re nuts. Edge: Packers

So far, the Packers hold the edge in four of five categories. How will things shake out in part two? Again, check back Monday morning to find out.

-Chris Lempesis

Now, with the weekend drawing to an end, it seemed like a good time to provide an updated look (and, as always, give some thoughts on it all). After all, it’s hard [...]]]> Friday morning, I provided a brief look at what the other three NFC North teams had been doing in free agency up to that point.

Now, with the weekend drawing to an end, it seemed like a good time to provide an updated look (and, as always, give some thoughts on it all). After all, it’s hard to find a division that was busier than the NFC North.

Chicago Bears - In terms of activity and dollars spent, the Bears have been the unquestioned kings of free agency thus far. On Friday alone, they dished out roughly $121 million to three players: defensive end Julius Peppers (six years, $91 million with $42 million in guaranteed money), running back Chester Taylor (four years, $12.5 million with $7 million in guaranteed money) and tight end Brandon Manumaleuna (five years, $17 million with $6 million in guaranteed money).

When you consider just how much pressure is on general manager Jerry Angelo and head coach Lovie Smith to win – and win now – the highly active approach was likely necessary (especially when you consider Chicago doesn’t pick until the third round this year).

If I’m a Bears fan (thank God I’m not), I like the Taylor and Manumaleuna signings. Taylor turns 31 in September, yes, but he’s only had season in which he carried the ball over 200 times (2006, when he ran for 1,216 yards in his first year in Minnesota). He’s got much more tread left on his tires than the average back that age. His role declined in Minnesota after 2006 due to the presence of that Peterson fella, but he’s still a crafty, tough runner who brings extra value as a pass catcher. Matt Forte is just not a No. 1 back and the Bears, as a team, were 29th in rushing yards per game last season (a paltry 93.3). Taylor will boost that number.

Manumaleuna – hate typing that name already – is a pure blocking tight end at 295 pounds. He should help in protecting Jay Cutler as he’s basically an offensive lineman. Plus, the Bears can now look into trading Greg Olson or Desmond Clark for added draft picks as new offensive coordinator Mike Martz really doesn’t use the tight end all that much.

If I’m a Bears fan (again, thank God I’m not), I’m not on board with the Peppers signing. Sure, he’s a freak of nature, physically, and can take over games. But those things only happen when HE wants them to and far too often, Peppers just doesn’t want them to. He takes plays/games/seasons off. Now that he’s paid in full, something he’s wanted for a long time, you have to wonder if “Bad Peppers” shows up even more now.

I kind of get why the Bears did it – their secondary stinks and Brian Urlacher’s body is breaking down, leaving Lance Briggs as their only real player in the final two levels of the defense. They’re hoping Peppers’ presence can cover for some of those weaknesses. I’m just not on board with it if I’m a fan. As a Packers fan, here’s how I know the Bears made a bad move: When the Vikings got Jared Allen, I thought, “Oh, no – this guy dominates week in and week out.” When Peppers signed Friday, I thought, “Eh, that guy only shows up about half the time, anyways, and they STILL gave him $42 million in guaranteed money.” See the difference?

Detroit Lions - The Lions have been almost as busy as the Bears. They’ve signed defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (four years, $26 million) and wide receiver Nate Burleson (five years, $25 million with $11 million in guaranteed money) and also traded for defensive tackle Corey Williams and cornerback Chris Houston.

In my Friday morning post, I pretty much bashed Detroit for these moves – it just traded for Houston on Sunday afternoon – although I did like the Vanden Bosch signing. After I stood back and looked at it, though, I have to say I think the Lions, shockingly, did a decent job here.

Detroit needed to upgrade its defensive line in a major way; Cliff Avril led the team in sacks last season with just 5.5. Vanden Bosch, as I said Friday, is not the player he once was. But he’s still a hard-working player who you have to account for. Williams was a major flop in Cleveland as he was never cut out to be a 3-4 end. He’ll move back to tackle now, though, where he had seven sacks in each of his last two years in Green Bay. If Jim Schwartz can keep him motivated and get him in a rotation, he’ll provide a boost. With those two – and, say, Gerald McCoy, who we have them taking in our latest mock draft – the Lions will get to the quarterback much more this season.

Detroit clearly overpaid for Burleson, but he did have 63 catches for 812 yards for Seattle last year, so he’ll be a major upgrade over Bryant Johnson and take some heat off Calvin Johnson. Houston never lived up to his second-round pick status in Atlanta, but he still has some talent. And considering all Detroit gave up was a sixth round pick – plus swapping fifth rounders with the Falcons – Houston isn’t much of a gamble.

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings have been very quiet thus far. A lot of that is likely due to the fact that, as one of the final four teams in the playoffs, Minnesota can’t sign any restricted free agents and can only sign unrestricted ones if it loses one of its own (plus, the first-year salaries on the two players have to match up).

Well, the Vikings have two openings now as they lost Taylor on Friday and guard/tackle Artis Hicks on Sunday (signed a three-year contract with the Washington Redskins). While they still have Peterson, Taylor’s loss leaves a big hole. He was so good as a third down back/pass catcher. Peterson can probably take over the third down role, but he is not a pass catcher. Plus, if he gets hurt, Minnesota basically now has no one behind him. The Vikings will need to address that situation soon.

Hicks, while primarily a backup, provided great depth because of his versatility. Like Taylor, his departure leaves Minnesota thin in the event something happens to a starting o-lineman. Last season, Taylor made $3.1 million and Hicks made just under $1 million, so the Vikings should be able to find decent players at those positions for those prices. But, surprisingly, there seems to be no sense of urgency coming from the organization. The Vikings don’t seem to even have any interest in anyone. Perhaps someone should tell them they were just one bad Judas pass away from a possible trip to the Super Bowl.

Wait, we’re Packers fans – nevermind. Nobody say anything.

-Chris Lempesis

While you were sleeping, the NFC North teams not named the Green Bay Packers were plenty busy.

Here’s a look at what the rest of the division has been up to in free agency so far (scroll down a bit for our most recent Packers update):

I was waiting to say it. I wanted to say it, but I didn’t want to rush. It’s a problem I have.

Now, [...]]]> (Before we begin: I’d normally apologize for this recap going up so late. But there was a reason for it tonight. I wanted to wait and see how the Philadelphia/New York game turned out.)

I was waiting to say it. I wanted to say it, but I didn’t want to rush. It’s a problem I have.

Now, though, I think we can officially say it: Reserve a spot for the Green Bay Packers in the tournament. They’re going to the playoffs.

The Packers’ 21-14 road win over the hated Chicago Bears on Sunday – their fifth win in a row – puts them at 9-4 on the season. Couple that with losses by the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants and Green Bay now has, essentially, a two-game wild card lead on both teams with just three games remaining.

The game with Chicago was itself a showing that a Packers postseason appearance will not be a fluke.

As I’ve done so many times over the past five weeks, I’m going to start with the defense. When you’re No. 1 in that area, you kind of have to.

Outside of two drives where Jay Cutler was, in a word, perfect, Green Bay’s defense shut Chicago down. Drive after drive, the group continues to play at an elite level. The best thing about that is that it’s happening at all three levels. The defensive line was without Ryan Pickett (hamstring) – and his absence was noticeable – but the group still did its job, particularly in the run game as Matt Forte was held to just 51 yards rushing.

The linebacking corps was perhaps even better. Nick Barnett is officially back to 2007 Nick Barnett, Clay Matthews had a sack and drew two huge penalties on Bears left tackle Chris Williams and A.J. Hawk was – gasp! – pretty good in multiple facets.

And if those two groups are good, what the hell do you say about the secondary? Charles Woodson made numerous big plays (and IS your 2009 NFL Defensive Player of the Year), Nick Collins had the game-changing interception (his fifth in sixth games as he continues his “Pay me Ted! Tour”) and the oft-picked on Tramon Williams came up with a big sack on Chicago’s final drive.

Opponents almost have to be perfect to have success against this defense. That can take you a long way in January.

The offense wasn’t great, stumbling and stammering at times, but the group did some nice things Sunday, things that can also take a team a long way come next month.

No. 1, of course, is that the offensive line protected Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was only sacked twice and pressured very few other times. Sunday wasn’t his best effort (just 180 yards and no touchdowns), but that’s because the focus, offensively, was on running the ball.

The unit did that pretty damn well, too. Ryan Grant had one of his best days in awhile with 137 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. He continues to run with grit and determination. Grant, like Barnett, is looking a lot like he did two years ago and his resurgence has been an underrated part of this team’s recent successes. And if he keeps this up, the Pack could have an edge in those cold-weather playoff environments.

One final thing that we saw Sunday that bodes well for Green Bay in the postseason: The bona fide matchup nightmare that is Jermichael Finley.

At one point during the game, I said to one of my friends that if you were to build the perfect weapon in a lab somewhere, there’s a good chance you’d build Finley. If your defender is quick, Finley uses his size and strength to beat him. If he’s big and strong, Finley uses his athleticism to gain an edge. He had five catches for 70 yards (one fumble lost) as it was clear the Bears could not figure out how to stop him. He’s one of Rodgers’ top reads on almost every play. At this point, I’d say that’s a smart approach. He’s another x-factor for the Pack come January.

And if none of these things make you feel extremely excited about where this team is heading, keep this simple fact in mind: This is a game Green Bay loses last season.

Once the Bears went up 14-13, last year’s Packers would have deflated a bit. The defense would not have kept fighting and the offense would have fallen out of synch, likely done in by poor playcalling.

Not this year’s Packers, though. This team kept its wits and kept battling until it was able to turn things its way and come out with a win. That should tell you all you need to know about this Green Bay squad.

The talent has always been there. A potent dose of resiliency has been added to the mix.

January’s coming. And the Packers will be a tough out. Bank on that.

-Chris Lempesis

No one? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

The reality, though, is Green Bay’s game with the Rams on Sunday, set for Noon Lambeau time, is exactly that.

The Packers made it that way by embarassing themselves in a 31-24 home loss to Cincinnati last week.

The idea [...]]]> Raise your hand if you thought this would be a crucial game?

No one? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

The reality, though, is Green Bay’s game with the Rams on Sunday, set for Noon Lambeau time, is exactly that.

The Packers made it that way by embarassing themselves in a 31-24 home loss to Cincinnati last week.

The idea of being 1-2 going into the Dome on Monday Night Football is one that the Packers can not allow to become reality.

Hence, they have to, have to, have to win this week.

How will they go about doing that? Let’s find out as we at OBOD break down Packers vs. Rams.

Current line (not that we encourage gambling): Packers by 6 1/2 with an over/under of 41 points.

(We’ll be going with this instead of our weather report from now on, unless we feel it’s necessary to mention the weather.)

Injury report

Packers

Atari Bigby (ankle) and Chad Clifton (ankle) are both out, as we already know.

Despite practicing earlier in the week, Brandon Jackson (ankle) suffered a setback Thursday and will once again not play.

Some more injury information, courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

On the bright side, it sounds like Nick Collins (clavicle) will likely play.

It is unknown whether or not B.J. Raji (no second Raji until he plays) will finally be able to suit up Sunday with his injured ankle. He suffered a setback Thursday but apparently practiced without incident today. For some strange reason, I’m getting the feeling he’s been ready to go for awhile, but that McCarthy is purposely holding him out for the Vikings game so they can’t get any tape on Raji. One thing’s for sure, if you read the link: Raji wants to play.

Korey Hall (shoulder/concussion) is still questionable, as well.

Rams

Tackle Jason Smith (knee), the No. 2 pick in the draft, is unlikely to play.

The only other Ram of importance, starting center Jason Brown (knee), was upgraded to a full participant Friday so he should likely play.

Must be nice to have so few injury concerns.

Key matchups

Offense

Green Bay offensive line vs. St. Louis defensive line

Call this one a matchup of two struggling units.

We all know about how bad the Packers o-line has been, so let’s focus on the Rams.

St. Louis’ defense has certainly struggled, to say the least, in rushing the passer over the first two weeks. The Rams have exactly one sack, good for second worst in the league (behind Dallas, of all teams, who has none).

Still, there’s a lot of talent on that d-line, with players like Chris Long, James Hall and the truly despicable Leonard Little in that group.

(Little, if you don’t remember, was the player who, many years ago, thought it would be a good idea to get in his car after a long night of drinking and drive home. Only he didn’t make it home before he hit another car, driven by a pregnant woman. The pregnant woman died as a result, yet Little didn’t get kicked out of the league. A true scumbag in every sense.)

In a matchup of two struggling units, something’s got to give. Hopefully, it’s not the Packers doing the giving.

Defense

Green Bay front seven vs. St. Louis’ Steven Jackson

After shutting down Matt Forte in the season opener, the Packers defense got shredded by Cedric Benson for 141 yards on 29 carries last week. Benson is a tough, physical runner who can get plenty of yards after first contact.

But he’s no Steven Jackson.

Jackson has had more than his share of injury troubles since coming into the league, but when healthy, he’s perhaps the biggest beast of them all. He’ll be 100 percent for Sunday, which means the Packers will have their hands full.

Gap discipline and poor tackling brought Green Bay down last week against Benson and that can not happen this week against Jackson. The Packers need to get multiple defenders to the ball and box Jackson in to give themselves a chance. If they get caught in too many one-on-one battles with him, they’ll lose most of the time. And if they lose too many, he’ll make the 141 yards that Benson put up look like child’s play.

Special teams

Green Bay return units vs. St. Louis cover teams

Outside of Jordy Nelson’s nice kick return to start the season, the Packers return units haven’t looked that stellar. It’s not for a lack of talent as Nelson and (especially) Will Blackmon are two very good return men.

With the team coming off an embarassing showing last week, a nice return or two early in the game could really provide that confidence boost that the team kind of needs right now.

The Packers will win if…

(Quick FYI: I’m not going to say “the offensive line has to play better.” We all know that.)

1. Ryan Grant gets going. Seriously, Ryan, 3.6 yards per carry? Not good enough. The offensive line has been awful, as we all know. But Grant hasn’t helped his cause that much. Too often he’s looked tentative and isn’t running with the ferocity I thought he would before the season started. He’s got to get back to that Sunday.
2. The offense gets back to focusing on the short to intermediate passing game. Green Bay has been chasing the home run ball, so to speak, far too often over the first two games. And when you swing for the fences, as we all know, a lot of times you strike out. In fact, its only really worked once, on the game-winner to Greg Jennings against Chicago. It’s a big departure from the usual passing game under McCarthy, in which the short throws have set up the long ball. The Packers need to take that approach Sunday as that will allow the offensive line to gain some early confidence.
3. They can get some of their depth at the receiver/tight end positions involved. Where have James Jones, Nelson and Jermichael Finley been? Jones and Finley got involved a little bit against the Bengals, especially late in the game, but not enough. The depth at those spots was supposed to be the real strength of the offense before the season started. It hasn’t been there and Green Bay needs to showcase it Sunday.

How I think the game will go

This is an absolutely crucial game for the Packers and, make no mistake, they will be an angry bunch Sunday.

You might have noticed I didn’t mention the defense in the above section. Well, that’s because I’m not really worried about that group. They got embarassed last week and they know it. They’re ready to make amends and they’ll do so by punishing the hell out of Marc Bulger and his mediocre group of receivers. They might not shut down Jackson – if he’s healthy, I’m not sure if you can – but they’ll contain him enough.

The o-line will also be fired up. For two weeks, they’ve had to hear about how awful they are. Not that that wasn’t true, but still, I think they’ve heard enough. That will equal improved showings all around against a subpar Rams defense. That will translate well for the Pack’s playmakers. It’s not like Green Bay didn’t have talent; the talent just didn’t have time to shine.

They’ll get it this week. Boy, will they get it.

Prediction: Packers 35, Rams 10

-Chris Lempesis

We at OBOD pride ourselves on being able to bring you all the news regarding the Packers in a timely fashion. This game recap is a different story, however. Adam and I were at the game last night and, since we don’t live in Green Bay, we spent most of today [...]]]> Before we begin, an apology.

We at OBOD pride ourselves on being able to bring you all the news regarding the Packers in a timely fashion. This game recap is a different story, however. Adam and I were at the game last night and, since we don’t live in Green Bay, we spent most of today on the road home. That’s why this is running about 20 hours later than it should have. We’re very sorry and this will not be the case normally. You have our word.

Now, let’s talk about the Bears game, shall we?

Remember those games last season when the Green Bay Packers couldn’t get a late score and, even if they did, their defense found a way to lose the game?

Yeah, guess what: That team is dead.

In its place stands a confident, talented – and most importantly, aggressive – group that looks like it would rather run to the win than wait for the win to come to them.

That was the biggest thing to come out of Sunday night’s heartstopping 21-15 win over the hated Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay certainly wasn’t as sharp as it could have been, offensively. The line – right tackle Allen Barbre in particular – struggled throughout the night. Aaron Rodgers failed to recognize open receivers and was just a hair off on a few deep throws. If the throws were there, the receivers, more than once, failed to make plays they should have made (two drops, Jordy Nelson? Not good enough).

But those things can, and likely will, be fixed. So don’t worry too much about it.

Instead, focus on the fact that, from the first series on, head coach Mike McCarthy decided to let Rodgers and his talented group of playmakers take their shots downfield against a clearly overmatched Chicago secondary.

That was none more evident than on the eventual game-winning score. Last season, the Packers would have likely gone with a predictable run play on third-and-one, simply trying to move the chains in order to better set up Mason Crosby for a game-winning field goal.

Not this year.

McCarthy called for a play fake, leaving Greg Jennings wide open down the sideline for the eventual game-winning score.

Loosening the reigns on Rodgers? Hell, McCarthy threw the reigns in the garbage.

Speaking of Rodgers, I’d like to know where all those, “He can’t win the close ones” people are now. Because I certainly can’t hear them chirping incessantly anymore.

To simply look at Rodgers’ line – 17-of-28, 184 yards, four sacks including one for a safety – doesn’t say much. But to see what he did when it mattered most says a lot, mainly that he just took another sizeable step towards elite status.

And how on Earth have I written 444 words and not mentioned the defense?

The regular season debut of Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme was an out-and-out success.

The Pack tortured Chicago’s brand new crybaby quarterback Jay Cutler for the majority of the night. Yes, Cutler hit a couple of big throws – which you knew he would – but his debut was otherwise ruined by a defense that was in his face for most of the night. A lot of that pressure came from the front three of Cullen Jenkins (my Player of the Game, by the way), Ryan Pickett and Johnny Jolly. If those three can do that now, wait until B.J. Raji (RAJI!) gets healthy and the linebackers fully learn what they’re doing.

The four interceptions that came as a result of that pressure were certainly impressive, but even more impressive was how the Packers kept mixing up their coverages, sometimes as late as a few seconds before the snap. It was readily apparent by the second quarter that Cutler had no clue who was going to be where in coverage most of the time.

All of these things – the Pack also held second year standout Matt Forte to just 55 yards on 25 carries, by the way – come together to form a big picture of a defense that is going to go right at opponents this season. No more sitting back and reacting to what the offense does. That’s not how Dom rolls.

You want to pass? The Packers are going to have multiple guys coming from multiple angles. You better get that ball out quick.

You want to run? The Packers will meet you in the hole, not four or five yards downfield.

And if you want to win the game late? You better be precise and able to match the aggressive nature of Green Bay’s defense. The word “prevent” doesn’t exist here anymore.

Again, the Packers were perhaps not as sharp as many thought they’d be.

But to win despite that fact shows a lot about just who this group of Packers are.

In other words, a team to fear. And a team that’s nothing like it was last season.

-Chris Lempesis

We know about the primetime television audience.

We know about the rivalry.

As fun as all those things are – and, believe me, they are fun – we should probably, at some point, talk about the actual matchup itself.

Well, that time is now, as we are going to break down all the important [...]]]> We know about the storylines.

We know about the primetime television audience.

We know about the rivalry.

As fun as all those things are – and, believe me, they are fun – we should probably, at some point, talk about the actual matchup itself.

Well, that time is now, as we are going to break down all the important information and matchups that comprise Packers vs. Bears, Sunday night at Lambeau Field at 7:20 p.m. Lambeau time.

(Gives me chills just writing that)

Weather report: At the time of this posting, the Weather Channel forecast for kickoff suggest a possible high of 79 degrees and a possible low of 52 degrees, with zero chance of rain. That’s likely to change a half-dozen times between now and kickoff, but at the moment it sounds like it will be a perfect early fall evening at Lambeau.

Injury report

Packers

Will Blackmon (quad), Brandon Jackson (ankle) and B.J. Raji (ankle).

Raji practiced today and it sounds like he’s planning on playing. Whether the coaching staff agrees remains to be seen. Still, I think the big fella will play, albeit in a slightly reduced role.

Jackson and Blackmon, however, haven’t practiced in awhile. Jackson is almost guaranteed to be out, I think. Blackmon will test his quad today, but he’s been out with that injury far longer than originally thought and I doubt it heels in time for Sunday.

Bears

The only real major player battling an injury for the Bears is cornerback Charles Tillman (back).

Tillman was listed as a full participant in Thursday’s practice. Chicago is being secretive, as you’d expect, regarding his status but my bet is that he’ll play.

Key matchups

Offense

Packers wide receivers vs. Bears secondary

The Bears’ secondary won’t be quite the unit we’re used to seeing. In other words, it likely won’t be as good.

As of now, Chicago is definitely starting a rookie sixth-round pick, Al Afalava, at strong safety.

Tillman, even if he plays, won’t be 100 percent. If he doesn’t, Trumaine McBride, a third-year player with very little experience, will go in his spot. Nathan Vasher will start at the other corner. But he’s struggled with injuries and inconsistent play over the past two seasons.

Kevin Payne is the starting free safety and he’s a hard-hitter who is solid overall.

Regardless, the Packers elite group of wideouts should have plenty of opportunities to make plays.

Defense

Packers linebackers vs. Bears tight ends

With the Bears so questionable at wideout (Devin Hester as a No. 1 target? Really?), it’s a safe bet that their very good tight ends – Greg Olson and Desmond Clark – will be Jay Cutler’s top targets in this contest.

The Packers have to make sure those two don’t own the seams or else, suddenly, the whole field will open up for Cutler. The linebacking group, which has some strong cover guys (Brandon Chillar, Nick Barnett) and some who, well, aren’t strong (Brady Poppinga, A.J. Hawk) will have to be physical with Olson and Clark to keep them from finding space.

Special teams

Packers cover teams vs. Bears returners

Hester wasn’t his normal game-breaking self last season as a returner, likely because he had more responsibilities as a wideout. Still, he’s always dangerous. Danieal Manning handles the kickoff duties and all he did was lead the league in return average last season.

The Packers struggled on coverage duties last year. The group appears to have improved in the preseason, but it will be put to the test Sunday. It has to respond.

The Packers will win if….

1. The offensive line creates space for Ryan Grant and Grant takes advantage. Most of the talk surrounding the Packers’ preseason showings dealt with how well Aaron Rodgers looked. Rodgers was fantastic, to be sure, but the o-line and Grant are the real keys to success Sunday night. With the Bears’ secondary being so weak, you have to think head coach Lovie Smith – who is calling the plays on defense this year – will scheme it so that group is covered (i.e., running a lot of nickel and dime defenses early). If Chicago is sitting back on its heels, the running game should have a chance to get rolling early on. If it does, that will get the Bears leaning forward. Then its playaction time and the Pack will dominate.
2. Cutler is pressured. Yes, saying that you have to pressure the quarterback sends me dangerously close to “Master of the Obvious” territory, I know. But with Cutler, it’s really true. Remember, he doesn’t know his receivers that well yet. So, if the defense pressures Cutler, he will rely on his gunslinger mentality (he’s got a big arm and is a huge Judas fan, keep in mind). That will cause early and, oftentimes, poor throws. That will allow the Packers’ playmaking secondary to do what they do best: Create turnovers.
3. Green Bay gets off to a hot start. First quarters were not good for the Packers last season. A hot start Sunday is key because it will just reinforce for the team that it is as good as it was in the preseason. That type of momentum spreads throughout the entire team. It also lets Chicago know what type of game its in for. The Bears, a far-less talented team, could then start pressing in order to keep up.

How I think the game will go

Offensively, it’s all set up for the Packers to dominate. The Bears defense is on the downside even with a proven mastermind like Smith calling the plays. The Packers offense, on the other hand, is on the cusp of becoming one of the league’s best. If the o-line does its job, Green Bay will score in bunches. Period.

Defensively, the Packers have to prove the strong preseason showings weren’t a fluke. I think they will, somewhat, although don’t expect that group to dominate like it did. The games count now and the Bears have had some time to look at the tape from the preseason. Plus, Cutler is going to make one or two brilliant throws because, well, he almost always seems to and Matt Forte will get his touches and yards. That said, the Packers’ secondary is so good, I expect they will come up with at least a turnover or two.

That will prove to be the difference as Green Bay will make a statement that it is for real.

Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 20

-Chris Lempesis

The Bears, longing for the days of, well, Sid Luckman, finally got themselves a big-name quarterback this afternoon when they acquired Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos.

Cutler came with a price tag befitting a big name, as well: Chicago’s first round [...]]]> Well, it looks like that Sunday night Bears-Packers season opener at Lambeau just got a whole lot more interesting.

The Bears, longing for the days of, well, Sid Luckman, finally got themselves a big-name quarterback this afternoon when they acquired Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos.

Cutler came with a price tag befitting a big name, as well: Chicago’s first round picks in 2009 and 2010, its third round pick in 2009 and the team’s current starting quarterback, Kyle Orton. The Bears also pick up Denver’s fifth round selection in this year’s draft.

The move makes the Bears a buzzworthy team heading into next season and Chicago fans, at least for the moment, are excited to have an actual quarterback. For some Bears fans, it’s the first time in their lives they can actually say such a thing.

Cutler is a young quarterback who certainly has some potential, but when you step back and take a good look at both Cutler and what the Bears gave up to get him, the move just doesn’t add up.

Cutler has a record of just 17-20 as a starter playing in a system that has gotten good numbers from some very average quarterbacks (the names of Brian Griese and Jake Plummer come to mind here).

His “career” year came last season, when he threw for 4,526 yards, certainly a great amount. But 25 touchdowns to 18 interceptions? Not a very good ratio (his career rating of 54 to 37 also leaves something to be desired).

When his team, in the midst of an AFC West divisional title chase last season,  needed him to be his best, he was anything but. Denver lost three straight games to end the season, with its “star” quarterback compiling QB ratings of 74.3, 72.4 and 74.9. He also threw just two touchdowns compared to four interceptions.

Positively Grossman-esque.

Things are even less rosy with regards to the team he’s going to.

Once known for their top-flight defense, the Bears are nowhere near as good as they once were on that side of the ball. Last season, they finished 21st in total yards allowed, including a 30th place showing in passing yards allowed. They also were 22nd in sacks. Head coach Lovie Smith will take over play-calling duties for the defense this season, but even he can only do so much.

What’s that have to do with Cutler, you ask?

The Broncos had a similarly poor defense last season. That meant Cutler had to carry a lot of the load in order for the team to win. Mixed results followed.

It will be a similar story this season – in fact, it could be worse as the Bears lack any of the consistent, big-time playmakers that Denver had. And don’t mention Devin Hester, Matt Forte or Greg Olson, Bears fans – remember, I said consistent, big-time playmakers. There’s no one close to Brandon Marshall’s level on Chicago’s offense.

The Bears could always get him some help in the dra – oh wait, they can’t because they only have one pick in the first three rounds now.

If all of this wasn’t bad enough, there’s also one more factor to consider: Cutler seems like a real jerk.

This is a guy who just could not deal with the fact that his new head coach (Josh McDaniels) might have been trying to get rid of him in order to acquire a quarterback (Matt Cassel) that he helped groom and who knew the system he was going to install.

Cutler pulled a Favre – yes, I said it – and got his agent, the increasingly detestable Bus Cook, to inform the team he wanted to be traded. Then, like Favre – yes, I said it again – he tried to act like the whole thing wasn’t his fault.

This is a business, sweetheart – grow up a little bit. If Cutler had a hard time dealing with McDaniels, how in the world is he going to deal with Smith, who seems like one tough, old school S.O.B.?

In the end, you come to the conclusion that while the Bears might have finally gotten a quarterback, they’ll likely be kicking themselves for a long time for what they gave up.

Besides, we still have the best quarterback in the division.

-Chris Lempesis