(Wait, wait – I got my papers mixed up there. Okay, now I’m good.)

Clay Matthews.

Now, keep in mind, I am not talking about next year or the next five years. I am strictly focusing on the remainder of this season. And, for that stretch, you will not find a more important player on Green [...]]]> Brett Goode.

(Wait, wait – I got my papers mixed up there. Okay, now I’m good.)

Clay Matthews.

Now, keep in mind, I am not talking about next year or the next five years. I am strictly focusing on the remainder of this season. And, for that stretch, you will not find a more important player on Green Bay’s roster than the long-haired, wild beast of a human being that dons jersey No. 52.

Do not take that as a sign of disrespect towards Aaron Rodgers. As many of you pointed out, both in our comments section and Twitter, a franchise quarterback is the most important thing a team can have in today’s NFL. No arguments on that. But a franchise quarterback alone does not equal success. Last time I checked, Phil Rivers’ squad is 3-5, for example.

Remember, Rodgers has been on the field the entire way thus far. That includes the stretch in mid-October when things were looking awfully bleak for the Pack. Rodgers should have played better, certainly, but even if his play stayed where it was, the team would have been fine – if Matthews hadn’t hurt his problematic left hamstring, that is.

For the six quarters Matthews missed because of the injury – the second half at Washington and the entire Miami game – the Packers generated almost no pass rush, racking up a grand total of two sacks and little pressure. The lack of pressure was perhaps the single biggest reason Green Bay lost both games in overtime.

Go back to the Redskins game (a game all of OBOD had the misfortune of attending). At halftime, Green Bay was only ahead 10-3. But you figured things would be okay because Washington couldn’t generate anything offensively, namely due to the Packers’ pass rush. The constant pressure Matthews – responsible for 1.5 of Green Bay’s three sacks in the half – put on Donovan McNabb had led to a brutal first half showing for the veteran, McNabb going 10-of-21 for 132 yards (52 coming on one completion). Halftime adjustments or not, you have to think Matthews could have kept that up all day. Even if he’d been shutdown, the attention he garnered would have allowed others to make plays (another thing he’s provided all season, by the way).

Once he left with the injury in the third quarter, though, a different story unfolded. Over the final two quarters (plus overtime), McNabb was given a great deal of time in the pocket and he made the Packers pay, going 16-of-28 for 225 yards, one touchdown and one pick. There is simply no way he puts up those numbers if Matthews stays in. As a result, you have to think Green Bay would have pulled out the win.

Similar story the next week at home against Miami. The Packers recorded zero sacks and, again, almost no pressure. Miami’s offensive line is much better than Washington’s, of course, so it’s hard to say Matthews would have made enough of a difference to earn Green Bay a win. But things were so close throughout, it doesn’t seem unfair to at least suggest it. Still, the Packers would have won at least one of those two games. With the way the NFC is shaping up, one extra win could make for a huge difference at the end.

Alright, enough with the “what-ifs.” Let’s now simply focus on the plays Matthews has made. The walk-off tackle of Michael Vick – in which he got past not one, but two, blockers – in week one. The drive-and-game-altering face masking call he drew on Minnesota’s Phil Loadholt on the Vikings’ final drive. The game-changing sack of Mark Sanchez late in Sunday’s win. The first of those ended the game, obviously, but the last two were just as important. In many ways, they were plays that took the final bit of life out of those teams. Lesser players do not make such things happen.

So, if you’re keeping score, Matthews’ absence has accounted for at least one loss. His presence was largely responsible for closing out three wins. Again, no disrespect to Rodgers, but you can not say he’s had the same impact. After all, his best game of the season came in a loss to Chicago.

But it’s more than just the raw numbers. Matthews’ presence brings an extra fire that can only come from great defenders. It’s the fire that Ray Lewis brings, the fire that Troy Polamalu brings. It’s the fire Reggie White used to bring.

If that player is in uniform, the entire team – not just the defense – seems to respond in a different way, because it knows that guy will bring effort from wire-to-wire. The results might not happen right away, or even for most of the game, but at some point, they’ll come.

Great quarterbacks provide a team with confidence, certainly something you need to win. But great defenders provide a team with passion. And when you’re as beat up as this current bunch of Packers are, that’s every bit as vital.

As long as No. 52 is crushing quarterbacks, delivering non-stop effort and, okay, flipping that hair, Green Bay will have a chance in every game it plays the rest of the way. Without him, the Packers would likely spend the rest of the season on a long journey towards the middle.

-Chris Lempesis

Smith and Golic – not the Golic from “Saved by the Bell: The College Years”, as it turns out - both [...]]]> So, I’m watching “NFL Live” – why wouldn’t I be, right? Nothing screams “NFL!” like late June - and during a segment, ESPN’s Michael Smith, Mike Golic and Cris Carter debated which quarterback under 30 is the best in the league.

Smith and Golic – not the Golic from “Saved by the Bell: The College Years”, as it turns out - both put our guy Aaron Rodgers at the top of the list. Carter went with Nasty Ben (aka, Ben Roethlisberger).

You didn’t really think Carter would give love to a Packer, now did you?

Anyways, that got me to thinking: I certainly love Rodgers and have a hard time believing I’d pick any other quarterback under 30 to guide my favorite team. But, being the football geek that I am, I had to investigate it just to make sure.

(Reminder, ladies: I’m single)

My first step: Figuring out the list of candidates.

I came up with seven possible names. Keep in mind, I was pretty inclusive with the first step:

Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Rodgers and Nasty Ben. Tony Romo just turned 30 in April, so that’s why he’s not on the list. And JaMarcus Russell just barely missed the cut – barely.

Second step: Whittling down the list.

Cutler, Schaub and Ryan were the first three to fall. Cutler lacks discipline and I have major doubts about his ability to be an actual leader. My “Second Coming of Jeff George” feeling about him hasn’t subsided yet.

Schaub is certainly capable of putting up massive numbers. Last season alone, he put up 4,770 yards, 29 touchdowns and just 15 picks. Of course, last season was also the first time he made it through an entire 16 games. He needs to be better at avoiding the injury bug to earn serious consideration.

Truth be told, I think Ryan is headed for elite status…but not quite yet. His numbers from last season aren’t great (2,916 yards, 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions in 14 games) and, sometimes, he still plays like it’s a Thursday night game at Virginia Tech. In other words, he needs to work on his decision-making. But he’s there as a leader already. He’s one of the main reasons the Falcons kept playing hard even after they were eliminated from the playoffs.

That, of course, left me with four options: Rivers, Manning, Rodgers and Nasty Ben.

Each of the four brought something to the table.

Over the past two seasons, the Chargers have become Rivers’ team. He’s certainly proven he’s worthy of such a title, throwing for over 8,000 yards with 62 touchdowns and just 20 interceptions in that time span. Rivers also has a swagger to his game that I like. He’s cocky, but it never clouds his on-field performance.

Manning’s a great fit for the running game/playaction passing system that the Giants run and has never buckled in the face of pressure that would wreck most of us. Seriously, can you imagine being Peyton’s little brother and playing in New York City? And, oh yeah – he’s got that Super Bowl ring, too, which never hurts your case.

Rodgers has put up two massive seasons and, like Manning, has never been broken by the massive amount of pressure he’s consistently been under. He’s also quieted the naysayers who questioned his toughness prior to taking over as starter. As his skill position players – like Jermichael Finley – continue to grow, he should only get better.

Nasty Ben is capable of putting up ridiculous numbers – I believe us Packers fans saw that firsthand last season – and has great improvisational skills. He’s also, hands down, the toughest quarterback in the league to tackle (there’s no way he plays at the 241 pounds he’s listed at). And if Manning’s one Super Bowl ring is impressive, what can you say about the two Nasty Ben has to his credit?

Again, though, I had to make the cuts.

The first name to go was Nasty Ben’s. The two rings are great, but with a nickname like that – and the allegations that brought on such a nickname – is there any way I could pick him? No.

Down to three. Easy enough, right?

Here’s why I didn’t pick Manning: His overall numbers. In five seasons as a full-time starter, he’s averaged roughly 3,500 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and 16 interceptions a season. Those numbers aren’t bad at all, nor is his completion rate (consistently hovers in the high 50-low 60 percent range), but they don’t necessarily scream “franchise quarterback.” Now I know there’s more to that status than mere numbers, but I wonder how Manning would fare in an offense that was passing-based.

You probably think you know what’s coming next. Guess again.

Here’s why I didn’t pick Rodgers: The postseason. I’m fully aware that he’s only been at the helm for two seasons and that one player – even a quarterback – can only do so much. But with the competition he’s up against here, I had to factor in that he’s 0-1 in the second season. If I was to go back and do this list again in a year or two, Rodgers very well could have some gaudy postseason victory numbers. I hope that’s the case. But, as of now, it isn’t. So, looking at it objectively, he can’t be my selection.

My choice would be Rivers.

He’s got the numbers (see: above) and has had success in the postseason (a 3-4 record, yes, but also an AFC Championship Game appearance). He’s faced his share of pressure – the offense became his only after it was LaDainian Tomlinson’s – and has put up his numbers without the help of a big-time wideout (Antonio Gates is a tight end, remember). Despite his cocky demeanor, he seems like a solid guy off-the-field, as he’s married with four kids. Not that that’s always stopped guys before, but as of now, he’s steered clear of any trouble. All in all, I’d feel the most comfortable handing over the keys to him.

That’s my take. What’s yours?

-Chris Lempesis

But what about some players, currently on other teams, who might be able to help the Pack next season?

That’s the focus of the final part of our post-season, pre-draft to-do [...]]]> So, we’ve just about covered the current in-house situation for the Green Bay Packers with regards to their upcoming free agents and the players who could be released.

But what about some players, currently on other teams, who might be able to help the Pack next season?

That’s the focus of the final part of our post-season, pre-draft to-do list as we’re going to take a look at some impending free agents in areas of need for Green Bay.

I’m going to rank the positions in order of most-to-least in need of upgrades. I won’t list every position possible, of course, as the Packers are more-than-set at a few spots (quarterback, wide receiver, etc.). Again, this thing ended up being just too long to run as one post, so I’ve broken it up into two sections. Part two will run later today (I promise).

And, finally, remember that the Packers are currently about $10 million under the cap. Yes, there likely won’t be a cap next season, but a fiscally-conservative franchise like Green Bay could very well set a number for what the cap would have been and a number for what they would have spent had there been one. Even if there isn’t a cap, the Packers aren’t likely to go over whatever number that might be. In other words, Ted Thompson isn’t going to start dishing out $50 million contracts left and right. He’ll let Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones do that.

Alright, no more stalling. Here is our early free agency look.

As always, enjoy.

1. Left tackle/left guard – If you’ve been following our coverage this week, you know that I think both Chad Clifton and Daryn Colledge should be sent packing. Clifton’s old and likely to fall apart soon enough and Colledge is just too up-and-down and when he’s down, he’s a wreck. Of course, by doing that, the Packers would then need an entirely new left side of the o-line. If Mark Tauscher’s brought back (which I think, and hope, he will be), my best guess is that T.J. Lang fills one of the two slots on the left side. The draft very well could be Thompson’s place to fill the other spot. If he chooses free agency, though, he looks to have a number of options at both guard and tackle, as of now. If Lang is placed at left tackle, New England’s Logan Mankins would make for an outstanding fit at left guard. He turns 28 in March, has been voted to two Pro Bowls and has started every game since being drafted in 2006. He’s equally good in run and pass blocking and could be to the Pack what Steve Hutchinson was to Minnesota – yeah, he’s that good. The Pats made interior o-line a priority of sorts in last year’s draft and might decide to let Mankins go, albeit as a restricted free agent. It might cost the Packers a first-and-third rounder (plus a new contract), but Mankins is absoultely worth it. San Francisco’s David Baas is a big boy at at 6-feet, 4-inches and 330 pounds, but is a solid starter who would provide some much-needed size and aggression (he’s a Michigan guy and Michigan always produces o-linemen with nasty dispositions). He’s restricted, too, and might cost a second-round pick. Not a bad price, though. At left tackle. Tampa Bay’s Donald Penn appears to be the best of the bunch. He doesn’t turn 26 until April and has done a very nice job on the bad Bucs’ teams of late (the Bucs’ struggles in recent years are likely the reason he doesn’t get as much pub as he should). Again, he’s equally solid in both areas and, while some concerns exist about his weight, he’d be a nice fit for the longterm. San Diego’s Marcus McNeill, 26, like Mankins, has also been to two Pro Bowls. At 6-feet, 7-inches and 336 pounds, he’s a throwback type of left tackle in the sense that he’s just a monster. He’s done a nice job protecting Phil Rivers’ blindside and we all know the numbers that Tomlinson guy was putting up for awhile there. Baltimore’s Jared Gaither is just 23 years old (he turns 24 in March) and has done a solid job, particularly in opening holes for Ray Rice. He’s a step down from Penn and McNeil, but would still be a nice fit. Same goes for New Orleans’ Jermon Bushrod, who has done a nice job replacing the injured Jammal Brown this season. He’ll turn 26 in August and likely has his best days ahead of him. Keep in mind that Penn, McNeill, Gaither and Bushrod are all set for restricted free agency also. Penn and McNeill will likely get the highest tenders (first-and-third round), Gaither is probably tendered at the first-round level and Bushrod is likely a second-round tender. A high price any way you cut it, but when you’re picking in the mid-20s, as Green Bay will be, you can definitely argue that any of these guys would provide more value than what the Packers would get in the draft.

2. Cornerback – This is not likely to be a place where Thompson makes a move in free agency, at least in terms of going after any big fish. Charles “Defensive Player of the Year” Woodson, Al Harris (make no mistake, he will be back in Green Bay next year) and Tramon Williams (if the Packers suck it up and pay him like I think they should) make for a formidable, and expensive, top three at the position. But clearly help is needed in terms of depth (we all saw the wild card game, after all). Jarett Bush stinks, Will Blackmon and Pat Lee are somewhat intriguing, but oft-injured and Brandon Underwood is an unknown. In my mind, the team needs at least two new corners who specialize in playing zone coverage in a 3-4 scheme. Thompson likely uses the draft to take at least one corner fairly high, but he should look to free agency for the other corner. You know who’d be a nice fit? San Francisco’s Dre Bly. Sure, he turns 33 in May, but he still had three picks and 13 passes defended last season in a 3-4 scheme. His age likely means he’d come fairly cheap and he’s unrestricted, meaning no compensation would have to be surrendered. Indianapolis’ Tim Jennings isn’t in a 3-4 – and he’s a bit small at just 5-feet, 8-inches - but he knows how to play the zone and recorded two picks and 10 passes defended for the Colts this season. He’s also unrestricted and just turned 26 years old, although he could cost a bit more. Finally, Philadelphia’s Ellis Hobbs might be coming off of neck surgery that caused him to miss more than half the season, but if he can fully heal up, he could provide a ton of value. He’s played in a 3-4 before (recording nine picks in his four years in New England) and has returned three kicks for touchdowns (we all know the Pack could use an actual return threat). He’ll be restricted if there’s no cap, but Philly might just let him walk coming off such an injury. He won’t turn 27 until May and would be worthy of a fairly cheap gamble. Hey, anything’s better than Bush.

Again, look for part two later today.

-Chris Lempesis

I could do what I usually do on Tuesdays and write some sort of lighthearted, (hopefully) funny post about why we as Packers fans hate the team’s upcoming opponent, the Dallas Cowboys. But seeing as how they’ve pretty much owned us for the past, oh, I don’t know, length of [...]]]> I had to make a choice.

I could do what I usually do on Tuesdays and write some sort of lighthearted, (hopefully) funny post about why we as Packers fans hate the team’s upcoming opponent, the Dallas Cowboys. But seeing as how they’ve pretty much owned us for the past, oh, I don’t know, length of time since the “Ice Bowl”, that seemed like an exercise in jealousy.

I could give you another round of depressing leftover thoughts from the Green Bay Packers’ 38-28 road loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. It would include the fact that Mark Tauscher (knee sprain) is out for at least a few weeks and Aaron Kampman (concussion) might not play Sunday against Dallas. I actually started to write one of those, in fact, but decided against it. I really don’t want to spend ANY more time re-hashing that horror show or the somewhat serious injury fallout from it.

Instead, I’ve decided to use this space to give a mid-season report card for the 4-4 Packers (second place, NFC North). I did one – actually three (here, here and here) – of these after the first four games. This will be the last one I do until the end of the season and this time, I’m limiting it to two parts. This is part one; part two will be up later today.

(Wait, what’s that? By going with this option I have to talk about not only one depressing game but a depressing series of eight games? Is it too late for me to back out? It is? Crap)

Alrighty then, the midseason report card starts…now.

Enjoy. Or at least try not to throw up too much.

Offense

Bad news all around for this group, expected to be so good before the season started.

Aaron Rodgers might be putting up good fantasy football numbers (63.1 percent completion percentage, 2,255 yards, 16 touchdowns, five interceptions) but he still isn’t progressing at all in more than one key area. He can’t get rid of the ball quickly enough, too often looks for the home run and either can’t or won’t trust his abilities enough to make tight throws. His confidence has clearly been shaken by the 37 sacks he’s suffered and, if the beatings continue, Gene’s Philip Rivers comparison might be too kind. Rodgers might be headed for David Carr and Tim Couch territory. Grade: B

The running game has suffered as a result of Mike McCarthy’s inability to stick with it and the o-line’s inconsistency. But, more than anything, it’s been bad because Ryan Grant (621 yards, 4.2 yards per carry, four touchdowns) just isn’t a number one running back in the NFL. He’s a great No. 2. On top of that, Brandon Jackson (37 yards rushing) has once again struggled with inconsistency and injuries. He’s been a major bust and might not be on the team next season. Ahman Green has provided a spark in recent weeks. John Kuhn is a solid, if unspectacular fullback, and Quinn Johnson has shown some flashes of being a true sledgehammer. Grade: C-

If you’re looking for biggest individual busts on the team, the name of Greg Jennings (35 catches, 505 yards, just two touchdowns) might be at the top. Fresh off his $27 million contract extension, Jennings has done anything but ascend to the next level. In fact, he’s gone backwards. Yes, the o-line not giving Rodgers time has played a factor. But even when he has time, Jennings can’t get open. That’s unacceptible. Donald Driver (37 catches, 613 yards, four touchdowns) has been the offensive MVP in my mind. He brings a fire and passion to the game that few can match. His skills haven’t declined one bit, either. James Jones (11 catches, 263 yards, three touchdowns) has leveled off and is likely nothing more than a solid No. 3 option. Jordy Nelson (seven catches, 104 yards, one touchdown) struggled with drops before injuring his knee. Grade: B-

Jermichael Finley (17 catches, 260 yards, one touchdown) showed his true breakout potential at numerous times before injuring his knee. It’s no mistake that the offense’s struggles the past two weeks have come with Finley out of the lineup. He’s only going up from here. Donald Lee (23 catches, 174 yards, no scores) is not a true No. 1 tight end. Rodgers clearly has little trust in him as anything more than a dump-off option. Spencer Havner (three receiving touchdowns) has been fun as hell to watch, but is not a true receiving threat. Grade: B

As bad as this all has been, there’s been no area worse – maybe in the entire league – than the Packers’ offensive line. This group has not only poor technique, but poor strength. It gets pushed around by every team it faces. Daryn Colledge has been the worst, simply because he was so good last season. In a contract year, you should never regress like he has. Jason Spitz was performing decently before he got hurt, but is likely nothing special and should probably be shown the door in free agency. Chad Clifton’s been hurt and/or awful. T.J. Lang shows very good potential but is still an unknown. Allen Barbre was improving before Sunday’s meltdown relief appearance for Tauscher. Tauscher had a solid first part of the game before being hurt. Scott Wells and Josh Sitton have been the only two bright spots. And even they haven’t been overly impressive at times. You very much could make the argument that this team will need at least three new o-lineman for next season. Grade: F— (hope you guys pick up on why I included three dashes)

Overall grade: C+

Like I said, check back later today for part two.

-Chris Lempesis

The topic of our conversation the last couple days has been Aaron [...]]]> When Chris and I talk Packers–as we did last night–there’s usually a blog post waiting around the corner. Not sure if that means you, dear readers, should be excited or cautious, but here it is anyway. Bear with the stream-of-consciousness flow of this one:

The topic of our conversation the last couple days has been Aaron Rodgers, who’s now 23 starts in to his professional career. I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how hard it is to fairly evaluate Rodgers. His statistics are obviously very good; his passer rating of 110.4 leads the league, and it comes on the heels of an impressive 93.8 rating last year.

But then there’s the other side of Rodgers, what you see on Sundays: Too many snaps where he looks 20-25 yards down field, makes a read or two there and never comes back to a checkdown. The times where he seems not to have the “internal clock” to step up and feel a pass rush like the great ones so often do. The red-zone inefficiency. The games where he doesn’t really get the offense clicking until the Packers are throwing every down in the second half.

And then I had a scary thought: What if Aaron Rodgers is Philip Rivers?

You know what I’m talking about – the impressive, statistically appealing young quarterback who puts up good numbers, enters each year at the controls of an offense with a ton of weapons, but who you can never really imagine hosting the Lombardi Trophy.

I thought I was overreacting. Then I went to the numbers — the ones beyond the traditional yards-and-turnovers metrics for quarterbacks that are very easy to manipulate. I swung over to FootballOutsiders.com, an excellent site that’s doing for football analysis what Baseball Prospectus did for seamheads. I checked their advanced QB stats, which adjust performances for game situations and opponents to figure out how much more valuable a player is than the league-average QB or the readily-available replacement. They also have a stat called effective yards, which counts sacks and aborted snaps against a QB’s value.

In all of those metrics, Rivers and Rodgers are having very similar seasons. I looked at last year; Rivers was better than Rodgers in all of those categories.

Check it out for yourself, and let me know what you think.

None of this is to say I don’t like Rodgers. He’s clearly a solid NFL quarterback who still has room to grow. His numbers compare favorably with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in their second seasons as starters, and he’s miles ahead of where Brett Favre was in 1993 (when Favre led the league with 24 interceptions).

That is, if you just look at the numbers. At this point, I want to see more than that from Rodgers. The intangibles don’t have to be all there yet, but I want to see signs of them. I want to see him get rid of the ball quicker, or make more plays like the long scramble he had in the second half against the Vikings. I want to see him develop the confidence to put the ball in tight spaces, which is the only way the offense will get better in the red zone. I want to start feeling like when the Packers are in a tight game, he’ll be able to  make the adjustments necessary to pull one out every once in a while.

For all his mistakes, that’s what (still) sets Favre apart. He’s mastered all the minute details of the game so well–footwork, pocket presence, spotting blitzes and adjusting protection at the line of scrimmage–that when he’s motivated and he’s on, he’s almost impossible to stop. The interceptions drove us nuts, and I think they’re still coming with the Vikings. But Sunday reminded me of why this guy is so good, and where Rodgers needs to go.

Now, I say all this with a caveat. I think, on both sides of the argument, we evaluate Rodgers unfairly because of who he’s following, and the circumstances by which he got the job. We want to believe he’s a finished product so we can puff up our chests, look at Vikings fans and say, “It’s OK. We like our guy better, anyway.” But as with anybody who’s ever followed a legend, Rodgers suffers because we don’t want to wait through the development period.

So that’s where I’m at with Rodgers at this point. It changes week-to-week, but if by the end of the season, we start to see him develop in the finer points of quarterbacking, I’ll feel a lot better about this season.

Anybody have any other thoughts on Rodgers’ progression? This is a long, confusing process, and the Favre drama only made it worse. Post your thoughts and impressions here, and hang in there. We’ll get through this.

–Gene Bosling